Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 9, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Windy Bay 0 0-1
2 2 Windy Bay 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Divinely Bolt 3.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Cant Keep Me Down 3.50 3 6-1
5 5 Best Seller 4.50 4.9 9-1
6 6 Alamo 5.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Lady Mercedes 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Great Richie M 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 For Some Reason 4.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 B Fifty Two 3.50 2 4-1
4 4 Sir Greylind 3.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Badlands Ruler 6.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Midnight Stormy 20.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Baytown Bruiser 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Mo Hair Sam 0 0-1
1 1 Austin Cruise 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Baytown Sundance 5.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Reb 20.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Repeatingofcourse 12.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Financial Whiz 20.00 4.6 9-1
11 11 The Toner 12.00 4.8 9-1
12 12 Sweet Fantasy 5.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Mo Hair Sam 4.50 5.1 10-1
8 8 Sergeant Capps 5.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Tab Walker 10.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Sackett 15.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 American City 20.00 8.5 16-1
13 13 Lovely Regalo 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Probationer 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Pin Up Betty 4.00 1 2-1
12 12 Raconteuse 20.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Moonlight Gambler 3.50 3.1 6-1
8 8 Restless Dreamer 6.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Dianthus 12.00 4 8-1
4 4 Hidden Presence 2.50 4.3 8-1
9 9 Blame the Gelato 15.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Sicilian Princess 15.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Capo Donna 8.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Hampton Yard 15.00 8.3 16-1
14 14 Semantics 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Argentinidad 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Guinevere 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Adrasteia 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Abadin 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Asmodeus 2.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Brazen Boy 10.00 5 10-1
4 4 Epic Battle 3.50 6.7 13-1
6 6 Iceatude 20.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 One Red Cent 10.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Tiger’s Legacy 5.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Overbore 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Winston Wolf 0 0-1
4 4 Laughinalltheway 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 Lips Say Bliss 2.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Tagliatelle 10.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Montevallo 15.00 4 7-1
1 1 Harold’s Cloud 10.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Bobwhite Bobby 20.00 5 9-1
5 5 Pando 8.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Knox 8.00 7 13-1
9 9 Winston Wolf 6.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Welaka 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Athens Moon 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Johny’s Fireball 4.00 1 2-1
10 10 Camp Hope 10.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Santorini 6.00 2.9 6-1
11 11 Chasing the Crown 2.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Evan Harlan 8.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Bay Street Money 5.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 El Kabong 8.00 5 9-1
2 2 Fort Washington 3.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Native Thunder 20.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Dubyuhnell 12.00 6.9 13-1
12 12 Hayes Strike 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Salute the Stars 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Spiritual Lady 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Krickle 12.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 High Fashion Kate 15.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Ready for Trouble 3.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Mila Junes 15.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Bette Davis 6.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Queen’s Notice 5.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Idalou 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Windy Walk 4.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Seven Natty Patty 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Wailua 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.