Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 10, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Equate 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Thanks Frank 4.50 1.3 2-1
8 8 Charge the Castle 6.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Erasmus 6.00 3.7 7-1
13 13 Lead Foot 6.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Gimme Love 20.00 4 8-1
9 9 One Sharp Tiz 12.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Brother Rice 5.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Moonovermontgomery 15.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Perscripture 12.00 7.5 14-1
12 12 Centrifugal Force 20.00 8 15-1
11 11 Campbell Covers 30.00 11 21-1
1 1 Guatape 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Aoraki 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Tiffany 6.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Maclean’s Lullaby 10.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Daisy Duke 8.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Grace On Grace 10.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Flaming Glory 30.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Starlight Bella 20.00 4 8-1
5 5 Baytown Shinjuku 8.00 5.6 10-1
10 10 Baytown Cleopatra 4.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Citizen Judy 3.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Speed Collector 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Delicate 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Sir Ollie 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Soaring Bird 3.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 The Queens Jules 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Figureti (CHI) 2.50 4.1 8-1
7 7 Fitzpatrick 12.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Voodoo Zip 15.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Herd Immunity 15.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Into the Sunrise 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Sharper Gal 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Morning Miracle 4.50 1.1 2-1
3 3 No Map Needed 12.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Xtra Extraordinary 5.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Whiskey Wild 8.00 3 6-1
2 2 Uome 20.00 3 6-1
5 5 Dice Arm 12.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Song Bridge 12.00 4.4 8-1
11 11 Bright Lady Day 30.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Elliott Moon 30.00 8.3 16-1
4 4 Bold Appeal 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Artempus 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 West Hollywood 5.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Django 10.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Fort Thomas 6.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Phreddie Mac 4.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Juan Valdez 3.50 4.2 8-1
5 5 Telescopic 20.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Shallus 12.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Bernin Hot 12.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Demetrius 30.00 9.9 19-1
14 14 Border War 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Call Me Cassius 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Sugar Hook 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Cabernaydo 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Bookie Brent 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Green Light 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Kattath 0 0-1
5 5 Kattath 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Global Sensation 12.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Mobster Gun 12.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Greener Pastures 3.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Kahala 4.50 5.4 10-1
9 9 All West 4.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Improbable Story 30.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 Candy for Carmel 3.50 8.5 16-1
8 8 Flags Up 6.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Kitty Hawk 12.00 1 2-1
6 6 Hurry Hurry 2.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Single Dot Yaht 6.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Kissalot 4.50 4.4 8-1
3 3 Next Level 3.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Midnight Raid 2.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Lady Helena 0 0-1
5 5 Gold Lightning 2.50 1 2-1
11 11 Bella Haze 8.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Fancy Looker 8.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Whiskey Decision 5.00 3 6-1
9 9 Grecian Goddess 3.50 3.3 6-1
8 8 Cairo Street 10.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Lady Helena 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Smiling Ellie 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Bella Cruella 15.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Ragtime Lady 8.00 7.2 14-1
10 10 Lookster 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Takemetothebeach 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Liuzza 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Like a Saltshaker 0 0-1
2 2 Like a Saltshaker 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Pure Panic 4.00 1.6 3-1
10 10 Tilted Towers 4.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Mac Daddy Too 5.00 1.8 3-1
12 12 Hocus 15.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Lunar Module 5.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Efficiency 20.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Solidify 10.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Timeless Bounty 30.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Beyond Best 30.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Aleman 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Court Snort 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.