Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 11, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Blake B. 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 O’Trouble 6.00 2 4-1
1A 8 Funkenstein 3.00 3 6-1
1 5 Goldini 3.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Cheeky Tico 3.50 3.9 7-1
5 4 Jake Rocks 5.00 6.2 12-1
3 2 Co Conspirator 10.00 7.7 15-1
4 3 Hang Tight 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Beaugay S.) – Beaugay S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Whitebeam (GB) 1.00 1 2-1
4 4 Aspray 1.40 2.7 5-1
3 3 Spirit And Glory (IRE) 4.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Neecie Marie 8.00 4 7-1
1 1 Quarrel 15.00 6 11-1
6 6 Movie Moxy 2.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Bustin Bay 1.40 SCRATCH
8 8 Ocean Gateway 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Judge Rules 8.00 1 2-1
5 4 Iron Man Ira 3.50 3.6 7-1
1A 9 Big Ego 3.00 3.7 7-1
9 10 Sorority Prank 8.00 5.3 10-1
1 5 Russian Realm 3.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Break the Fall 8.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Palace Boss 5.00 6.2 12-1
3 2 Romantic Charmer 10.00 6.6 13-1
6 6 Mugsy Fury 30.00 7.3 14-1
4 3 Forgone 4.50 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Runhappy S.) – Runhappy S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Straight No Chaser 1.00 1 2-1
6 6 Joey Freshwater 1.80 1.6 3-1
2 2 Durante 5.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Ninetyprcentmaddie 8.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Twenty Four Mamba 12.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Stage Left 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Showdown King 10.00 1 2-1
1 1 Borletti (IRE) 3.50 1.7 3-1
10 10 Power Attack 3.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Kant Beat the Rock 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 P Money 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Holding the Line (IRE) 6.00 5 10-1
4 4 Street Swagg 15.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Devil’s Cay 8.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Warrior Richard 12.00 6.6 12-1
11 11 Screw Loose 12.00 9.7 18-1
12 12 War Terminator 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 High Heat 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Marathoner 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Giant’s Fire 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Good Reunion 4.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Lookin’ Super 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Peter Pan S.) – Peter Pan S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 The Wine Steward 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Deterministic 5.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Protective 8.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Antiquarian 6.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Native Land 12.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Unique Insight 8.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Tuscan Gold 2.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Lonesome Boy 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Man O’ War S.) – Man O’ War S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Kertez (GB) 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Tawny Port 6.00 1.1 2-1
9 9 Nations Pride (IRE) 1.60 1.6 3-1
8 8 Silver Knott (GB) 3.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 So High (GB) 20.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Harry Hood 15.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Ohana Honor 6.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Greek Order (GB) 15.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Rocket and Roll 50.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Granadilla 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Mulkey 2.50 1.3 2-1
8 8 Eastern Star 8.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Carol T 15.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Inflammabelle 8.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Mary Union Ave 12.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Spirit of Esther 12.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Kaaterskill 20.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Secessionist 15.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Nikki Brainburst 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 8 Belouni (FR) 1.60 1 2-1
2 1 Conman 5.00 1.8 3-1
8 7 Bode’s Maker 8.00 2 4-1
6 5 Ocean Atlantique 3.50 2.3 4-1
3 2 Runningwscissors 5.00 2.4 5-1
4 3 Dancin in Da’nile 10.00 3 6-1
1A 9 Danzigwiththestars 1.60 3.2 6-1
5 4 Magical Ways 15.00 3.8 7-1
7 6 American Law 15.00 4.9 9-1
11 12 Optic Way 15.00 SCRATCH
13 14 Synthesis 4.50 SCRATCH
10 11 Costa Terra 2.50 SCRATCH
12 13 Power Seeker 3.00 SCRATCH
9 10 Alternate Reality 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Midtown Lights 0 0-1
2 2 Pitch Clock 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Bon Adieu 5.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Midtown Lights 8.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Whistler’s Style 12.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Patty Cakes 8.00 3 6-1
3 3 Sweet Mystery 3.50 3.1 6-1
5 5 Broderie 4.50 4.3 8-1
4 4 My Girl Jal 30.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Belle of the Ball 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Once an Eagle 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Sendera 8.00 3.1 6-1
13 13 The Splendid One 4.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Rainingatthebeach 10.00 6.7 13-1
16 16 Lucky and Gorgeous 4.00 7.9 15-1
10 10 Brooklyn Dantz 20.00 8.2 16-1
2 2 Dell Arte 20.00 9.8 18-1
15 15 Dramatic Effect 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Lem Me Drink 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Bossy Jeans 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Rozay Summer 1.80 SCRATCH
7 7 Holder Close 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Alotta Jays 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Adult Entertainer 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Practical Royalty 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Troubled Luck 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.