Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 11, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Cloud Without Rein 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Runaway Joke 4.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Guilty Affair 10.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Scat Danz 20.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Air Force Cruising 2.50 6.7 13-1
3 3 Wild West Justice 6.00 7 13-1
7 7 Wholeheartedly 8.00 8.5 16-1
4 4 Munyhungry 10.00 8.9 17-1
9 9 Beezer 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Esme 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 She’s Magic 12.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Blue Guitar 4.00 2 4-1
3 3 I Gotta Bolt 10.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Late Nite Lizzie 12.00 4 8-1
2 2 Cumberland Falls 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 New Beat 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Last Call 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Boss Lady Bailey 5.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Johanny 3.50 1.9 4-1
8 8 Catmint 12.00 2 4-1
6 6 Je Suis Rapide 30.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Bag Lady 6.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Kathynmarissa 4.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Spartan Queen 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Yo Puedo 0 0-1
6 6 Yo Puedo 10.00 1 2-1
4 4 Wild Acclaim 20.00 2 4-1
3 3 Protomagic 8.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Outofnothingatall 4.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Sister Kisses 4.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 De’ Ans Eighty 2.50 4.2 8-1
1 1 Greek Heiress 3.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Red Hot Jeanie 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Maintain 20.00 1 2-1
1 1 Frio River 6.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Phenomenal Dream 15.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Chulligan 12.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Penrod 8.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Big Velvet 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Veracruzin 3.50 4.1 8-1
8 8 Kall Karl 8.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Bajan Boy 12.00 4.5 8-1
11 11 Macaw 5.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 Coach Campbell 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Cruisin and Boozin 12.00 1 2-1
7 7 Dazzlemesilver 3.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Show Time 3.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Western Ghent 8.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Fliparino 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Canavall 6.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Gilded Craken 4.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Artwell 10.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Merlotti 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Ngannou 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 St. Armands Key 10.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Tifareeh 6.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Fortune Seller 30.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Bolt At Midnight 12.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Ceepeegee 15.00 5.8 11-1
11 11 El Matador 20.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Gorilla Trek 15.00 7.2 14-1
12 12 Rock’n a Halo 10.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Army Officer 4.00 8 15-1
2 2 Funnyflame 8.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Zverev 4.50 9.4 18-1
13 13 Bean Machine 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Katheeb 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Air It Out 10.00 1 2-1
8 8 Peek 4.00 1.8 3-1
11 11 Trumptastic 2.50 2.2 4-1
9 9 Pancake House 5.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 He’s Elusive 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Curlin’s Gesture 10.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Roussette 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Brio 20.00 3.1 6-1
13 13 Pursuit of Power 6.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Waylon 15.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Bebedouro 15.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Mandalorian 12.00 8.3 16-1
10 10 Mr Scatter 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Confidence Game 12.00 1 2-1
5 5 Gasoline 3.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Hit Show 1.60 3.6 7-1
3 3 Warrior Johny 5.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Classic Catch 6.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Hayes Strike 5.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Alexander Helios 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Mamzelle S.) – Mamzelle S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Twirling Queen 0 0-1
5 5 Cloudwalker 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 Pipit 20.00 1.2 2-1
9 9 Toupie 12.00 2.2 4-1
16 16 Hot Beach 20.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Big Trouble 20.00 3.5 7-1
12 12 Imaboutago (IRE) 3.50 4.4 8-1
15 15 Tipsy Tammy 10.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Nice as Pie 1.80 5.8 11-1
11 11 Niki Nine Doors 8.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Twirling Queen 12.00 8.6 16-1
6 6 Tipsy Runner 15.00 8.9 17-1
18 18 Fibber 20.00 12.8 24-1
17 17 Moonlit Lady 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Honey Dijon 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Let Them Watch 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Parola Sicura 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Twirl Around 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Rhapsody 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Mugen 0 0-1
10 10 Dream On Stormy 30.00 1 2-1
2 2 Total Class 15.00 1.9 4-1
12 12 Speighter Woman 20.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 On Command 5.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Mugen 3.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Elegant Vision 20.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 La La Rose 4.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Endless Glow 8.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Gal Capone 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Bourbon Dior 8.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Now Hiring 30.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Ellen Jay 3.00 7.8 15-1
15 15 Rockaway Reef 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Closing Prayer 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Chic N Da Wadda 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.