Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 11, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Ghostly Act 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Run Bryce Run 3.00 1.9 3-1
6 6 Defensor Fortis 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Maxville 5.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Vols 20.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Handsome Red 5.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Lucky N Smart 3.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Stay On the Fence 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 Bella Vienna 3.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Haywood 8.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Immelmann 4.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Travelin’ Show 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Paradise Lake 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Invincible Molly (GB) 5.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Elegant 3.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Soho 2.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 She Is Romantic 3.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Beau Soleil 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 We’ll Do It Live 3.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Satellite Heart 2.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Panda Peak 6.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Petit Filet 8.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Big Rainbow 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Rose Maddox 1.60 1 2-1
1 1 Spicybug 2.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Recinto Rompere 2.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Tom’s Regret 5.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Alternate Rock 8.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Optional Claiming) – Maiden Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Precision Strike 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Battle Cruiser 2.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Mongolian Gold 4.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Kobe W 4.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Navajo Warrior 4.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Mongolian Max 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sir Pistolero 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Ferrariano 2.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 What a Dude 2.50 1.6 3-1
2 2 Seventeen Black 4.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Derecho Dandy 12.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Quagmire Magic 10.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Hard Mission 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Disobey 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Jamming Eddy 4.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Giver Not a Taker 10.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Andy Can U Hear Me 6.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 California Tiger 4.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Tom Horn 3.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Belly Up 15.00 4 8-1
9 9 Seattle Breakout 15.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Bronko Nagurski 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Upward Mobility 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Santa Barbara S.) – Santa Barbara S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Duvet Day (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Musical Rhapsody (IRE) 1.60 3.1 6-1
1 1 Illhaveanotherkiss 6.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Comanche Country (IRE) 4.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Vincero Grande 6.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Milagre Do Sol 12.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Customer List (FR) 12.00 7 13-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.