Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, May 12, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Inspector Penny 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Default 2.50 1.5 3-1
7 7 Gift Gorgeous 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Joia Rara 8.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Beautiful Mandate 10.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 La Picasita 4.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 No Consequences 3.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 My Romeo Lima 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Jay Vee Bee 4.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Barnaby 3.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Liam the Brave 4.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Stirdatpot 3.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 American Hero 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 He’s Got This 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Outlier 6.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 The Reds 2.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Doctor Nash 3.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Bird King 5.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Yono 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bling 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Ro Town 2.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Implicated 2.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Bali Belle 12.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Hurry Up Hannah 10.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Breeze Easy (GB) 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Smart With Heart 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Shes a Secret 3.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Tamara’s Way 5.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Markswoman 3.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Grove St. 5.00 3 6-1
2 2 Hurricane Lassie 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 R Queen Candy 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Amy Z 15.00 1 2-1
8 8 Yes to Champagne 5.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Gourmet 3.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Charm of the Song 12.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Classic Mystery 8.00 6 11-1
3 3 Illusion 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Songmaker 3.50 SCRATCH
2 2 What’s Her Number 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Game Warden 0 0-1
8 8 Runningforjoy 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 B Sudd 4.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Weslan 20.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Game Keeper 2.50 4.8 9-1
6 6 Balantyne 6.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Route Runner 6.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Hawks Creek 20.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Game Warden 3.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 G T Five Hundred 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Chryso Alogo 30.00 1.9 4-1
9 9 Junior Bug 3.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 J J’s Joker 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Chance 2.50 4 8-1
8 8 Gold Luck 10.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Lundberg 8.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Funny Uncle 12.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Supremely 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Dissolved 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 Berrettini 15.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 Caroom 8.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Apollo Rising 5.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Tapit Shoes 2.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 El Ahijado 50.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Idratherbeblessed 3.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Glen Airy 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Athens Moon 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Hold My Bourbon 4.50 1 2-1
6 6 Glacial Power 15.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Sahalat 4.50 3.4 6-1
8 8 Reagan 12.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Mondogetsbuckets 10.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Capital Connection 3.50 4.6 9-1
2 2 Send Cash 3.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Mister Lincoln 6.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Prints Money 10.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.