Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 16, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sant’ Antimo 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Legendary Lore 1.60 1.8 3-1
2 2 Huntington 3.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Ready Pursuit 15.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Dontkissdaminister 4.50 4.6 9-1
5 5 Criminal Defense 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Enduring Spirit 12.00 1 2-1
2 2 Empress Julia 2.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Lebowski 3.50 1.7 3-1
8 8 Conquering Cat 4.50 2.4 4-1
4 4 Bob’s Carrot 3.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Patriotic Jerrell 10.00 3 6-1
1 1 Baytown Beatle 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Baytown Sundance 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Pro Oxidant 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Go West 3.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Chattalot 3.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Backside Buzz 4.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Blue Kentucky 5.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Chipofftheoldblock 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Rhapsody 0 0-1
2 2 Makeup 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Parola Sicura 12.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Moonlit Lady 15.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Twirl Around 2.50 3.5 7-1
10 10 Moon Spun 10.00 4.1 8-1
12 12 Rhapsody 3.50 4.8 9-1
5 5 Foolish 20.00 5 9-1
11 11 Bobbie Sox 20.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Empires Princess 12.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Our Keepsake 6.00 8.8 17-1
9 9 Bourbon Breeze 15.00 9.2 17-1
7 7 Normanjito (FR) 10.00 10.1 19-1
15 15 Sandra D 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Antique Silver 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 These Apples 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Royal Flower 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Musical Prayer 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Wonder of You 4.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Theroanrunner 2.50 2 4-1
1 1 Rosia Bay 6.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Edge of Town 15.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Musical Note 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Baytown Lovely 0 0-1
7 7 Chanisa 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Crystal Symphony 4.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Almond Fudge 4.50 4.2 8-1
1 1 Baytown Lovely 15.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Little Sass 6.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 She’s Splendid 3.50 6 11-1
4 4 The Big Calhouna 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Lark’s Mischief 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Champlin 5.00 2 4-1
5 5 Lofty Adjudicator 10.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Echo Again 6.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Midnight Taxes 4.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 Swot Analysis 10.00 5.6 10-1
9 9 Floki’s Flight 8.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Radical Right 15.00 7 13-1
1 1 Arro Smash 3.50 9.8 18-1
10 10 Midnight Escape 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Elliptic 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Tiz Sweet Emotion 4.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Tandi Sue 8.00 2 4-1
8 8 She’s Arodeoqueen 12.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Greyhound Station 3.50 2.7 5-1
4 4 Corri Felice 12.00 3 6-1
9 9 Mor Happy Hours 4.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Yo Leven 15.00 6 11-1
10 10 Evermore 15.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Where Is She 12.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.