Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 17, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Special Dispatch 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Drobny 3.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Coach Campbell 8.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Maliblue 4.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Bounteous 8.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Seven Taylors 12.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Lebombo 8.00 6 11-1
4 4 Oathbreaker 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Kyle Beauty 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Rose Palace 6.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Goshen 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Abitibi 2.50 4.2 8-1
4 4 Forever Home 2.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Kitten Calls 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Swiftwind 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Vodka With a Twist 8.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Slang 4.50 2 4-1
1 1 Achieve 3.50 2 4-1
3 3 La Cara 6.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Murphy Girl 5.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Anakarina 4.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Lalily 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Rose Alabama 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Crushed Ice 8.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Retail Therapy 6.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Georgia On E’smind 5.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Vino Veloce 8.00 3 6-1
4 4 Low Key Flex 10.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Pam Pam 2.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Argan 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Committee of One 5.00 1 2-1
10 10 Demolition Duke 2.50 2.4 5-1
2 2 Run Carson 6.00 3.2 6-1
11 11 Cigarette Boat 8.00 4 8-1
1 1 Bear River 8.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Polster 10.00 5.2 10-1
12 12 Sugar Gray Leonard 10.00 6 11-1
14 14 Silver Halo 3.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Chambers Bay 30.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Pretty Fast 20.00 9.7 18-1
13 13 Easy Operator 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Zartownis 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Pinfire 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Grande Tortugon (CHI) 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 More Than Five 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Quarrymen 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Sound Doctrine 2.50 1.1 2-1
6 6 Mauna Kea Bound 3.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Write Off Jerry 5.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Family Factor 12.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Smoothdini 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Quencio 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Gun Rush 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 P H Factor 5.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 On a Spree 3.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Hoodlum 5.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Nepal Up 6.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Super Curioso (ARG) 6.00 5 9-1
4 4 Knight’s Cross 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Born Flawless 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Howl 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Amaretti 3.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Anywho 5.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Unsung Melody 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Backyard Money 6.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Chandana 12.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Charriere 20.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Sweet Alyssa 20.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Condensation 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Without Cause 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Kimber Spice 8.00 1.3 3-1
3 3 Timeless Elegance 3.00 1.9 4-1
11 11 Heartstruck 15.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Mo Lantern 8.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Mishka 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Lucky Speech 20.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Stay Lost 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Mulima 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Deep Satin 2.50 SCRATCH
15 15 She a Baddie 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Scenic Beauty 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Lemon Latte 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Adrasteia 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mont Saint Michel (FR) 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Centuria (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.