Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 18, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Dedos 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Herb Elias 2.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Baytown Butterfly 3.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Case Ace 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Baytown Amy Rose 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 American City 12.00 7 13-1
4 4 Bottoms Up 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Green Light 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Sardis 3.50 1.9 4-1
15 15 My Boy Tony 8.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Cabernaydo 8.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Cloudy Holiday 8.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Sugar Hook 10.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Spin It 10.00 7.4 14-1
12 12 American Memories 10.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Unbridled Pleasure 12.00 9.1 17-1
16 16 Very Satisfactory 12.00 9.1 17-1
14 14 Double Neat 12.00 9.1 17-1
10 10 Bookie Brent 12.00 9.1 17-1
13 13 Half Dome (IRE) 12.00 9.1 17-1
9 9 Call Me Cassius 15.00 11.7 22-1
8 8 Accident 15.00 11.7 22-1
11 11 Ak Sar Ben Derby 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Rock Star Doctor 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 The Club 3.00 1.3 3-1
4 4 Dreaming Always 3.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Midnight Tango 4.00 2 4-1
2 2 Red Sun Dress 4.00 2 4-1
5 5 Caribbean Night 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Disarm 0.80 1 2-1
2 2 Howling Time 3.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Baba Voss 4.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Alejandro 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Texas Red Hot 10.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Onthestage 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Fan the Fire 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Pico d’Oro 3.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 True Jedi 4.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Western Command 5.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Oncoming Train 6.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Shuffle Dance 6.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Sutherland 8.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Bettering 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Ice Time 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Active Duty 3.00 1.4 3-1
13 13 Sagittarius 5.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Vigano 6.00 3.6 7-1
14 14 Uncle Tuffy 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Sir Rock 10.00 6.6 12-1
11 11 Moving to Kentucky 10.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Strasse 10.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Admiral Hall 12.00 8.1 15-1
10 10 Puckster 12.00 8.1 15-1
12 12 Now Ima Believer 15.00 10.3 19-1
2 2 Auden 20.00 14 26-1
8 8 Master of the Nite 20.00 14 26-1
3 3 Laughnowcrylater 20.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Louisville S.) – Louisville S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Bold Act (IRE) 1.00 1 2-1
10 10 Utah Beach 3.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Starting Over 4.00 2 4-1
3 3 Avenue 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Reckoning Force 12.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 The Grey Wizard (IRE) 12.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Sugoi 20.00 7.6 14-1
11 11 Strong Tide 30.00 11 21-1
2 2 King Curlin 30.00 11 21-1
4 4 Guntown 30.00 11 21-1
5 5 Quadra Island 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 O P Firecracker 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Background 3.50 1.3 3-1
1 1 Fifty Cent Dollars 4.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Trident Hit 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Santos Dumont 8.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 American Blaze 10.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Accidental Hero 10.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Kitodan 15.00 9 17-1
2 2 Elusive Target 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Virasana 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Huntress for Hire 3.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Motown Dynamic 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Marmalade Skye 5.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Cozee Rags 8.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Fluent 10.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Into Love 12.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Dazzlingdominika 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Extra Anejo 1.20 1 2-1
8 8 Highway Robber 3.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Gray’s Fable 4.00 2.5 5-1
15 15 The Prince’s Spur 4.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Fair Dinkum 5.00 3 6-1
9 9 Escape Artist 6.00 3.5 7-1
11 11 Big Dreaming 8.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Packs a Wahlop 10.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Malibu Springs 12.00 6.6 13-1
14 14 Tiberius Mercurius 15.00 8.2 15-1
2 2 Scoobie Quando 15.00 8.2 15-1
6 6 Clyde’s Got a Gun 15.00 8.2 15-1
7 7 Lincoln Highway 15.00 8.2 15-1
1 1 Loyal Company 15.00 8.2 15-1
13 13 Split the Wickets 20.00 10.8 20-1
12 12 Powerful 30.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Letstalkaboutme 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Mischievousness 3.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Alicit Intention 3.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Defining Joy 6.00 3 6-1
3 3 Wine and Waves 8.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Sanctify 10.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Baby Avery 10.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Time for Magic 15.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.