Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 25, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Condiment Girl 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Summer of Mischief 2.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Mazoku 3.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Protomagic 4.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Caltha 20.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Markswoman 8.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Fairy Cakes (GB) 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Stingy 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Dual Monarchy 5.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 God of Wine 3.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Haskelled 8.00 6 11-1
2 2 Via Della Spiga 10.00 6 11-1
5 5 Forge in Fire 6.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Tiverton 5.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Cashmeup 6.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Zen Moment 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Mo for Us 2.50 1.1 2-1
10 10 Crazy Cami 3.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Wowsers 10.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Outwork Mom 15.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Despo’s Dream 12.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Innocent Nyght 15.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Penny’s Smile 10.00 5 10-1
4 4 Sombra Dorada 10.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Classy’n Connected 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Everything Bugs Me 3.50 1 2-1
13 13 Claret Beret 2.00 2.1 4-1
12 12 Mystical Chant 6.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Dial Home 5.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Hand It Over 15.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Westphalia 6.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Celebrity Ro 4.50 5.8 11-1
10 10 Stephanieswarrior 20.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Argentinidad 20.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Above All Else 8.00 8.6 16-1
4 4 I Am the Sauce 12.00 9.1 17-1
1 1 Quietly 12.00 10.4 20-1
16 16 Semantics 5.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Marina Gamba 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Toffee Apple 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 My Sexy Blonde 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Zippin Gigi 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Divine Armor 4.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Friar Laurence 5.00 5 9-1
4 4 Infiltrator 5.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Direct Line 6.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Papa Rocket 10.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Palace Kitten 20.00 7.7 15-1
5 5 Flags Up 8.00 8.7 16-1
6 6 W W Crazy 12.00 9 17-1
10 10 Global Sensation 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Genetics 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Halstyn Rose 5.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Prides Crossing 4.50 3.8 7-1
5 5 Moonlit Mischief 15.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Penny Royal 6.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Rare Affair 20.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Not Guilty 12.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 She’s It 15.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 American Fairytale 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Conquest Dancer 6.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Flawless Quality 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Bound for Nowhere 0 0-1
3 3 Bound for Nowhere 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 Counterstrike 4.50 2.9 5-1
7 7 Bushido 20.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Gaslight Dancer 8.00 3.7 7-1
11 11 Zoombie 10.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Clear the Air 5.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Kigali 15.00 5.4 10-1
13 13 Wake Surf 15.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 B D Valeski 15.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Ducale 12.00 9.4 18-1
9 9 Red Danger 30.00 11.3 21-1
17 17 Surveillance 2.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Insolito 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 On Your Mark 20.00 SCRATCH
20 20 Pro Oxidant 3.00 SCRATCH
18 18 Saffa’s Day 2.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Two Eagles River 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Into the Sunrise 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Bad Beat Brian 4.00 SCRATCH
19 19 Improbable Journey 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Motorcade 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Landlord 4.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Tagliatelle 12.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 J. P. Race 10.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Mucho Mojo 6.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Pressure 10.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 City of Clouds 15.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Jay Vee Bee 6.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 You Make Me Happy 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Supremely 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Silver Rose 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 She Called 3.50 1.3 2-1
7 7 Nay V Belle 5.00 1.8 3-1
11 11 Fibber 10.00 3 6-1
6 6 Ready for Trouble 8.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Winakaching 15.00 3.5 7-1
12 12 Zadorsky 20.00 5 9-1
5 5 Opposite the Crowd 20.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Hidden Class 15.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Plum Tricky 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Krickle 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Harbor Springs 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Keertana S.) – Keertana S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Atomic Blonde (GER) 0 0-1
2 2 Chop Chop 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Vergara 2.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Atomic Blonde (GER) 3.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Heavenly Appointed 8.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Sand and Sea 15.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Holy Foley 10.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Tower Bridge 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Candy Landy 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Illusion 8.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 Queen Clancy 4.50 2.7 5-1
11 11 Monarch 6.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Bougie Not Basic 5.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Fun Loving 20.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Queen of Paris 3.50 4.6 9-1
9 9 Come as You Are 8.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Rendezvous 30.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Shezalittlestinker 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 A Little Canela 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.