Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, May 26, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 West Coast Song 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Lady Aberdeen 2.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Xtra Extraordinary 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Silent Secretary (BRZ) 3.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Grand Prairie Gal 10.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Yzzy’s Bolt 10.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Iuka Miss 5.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Song Bridge 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Saqeel 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Tallahatchiebridge 3.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 The Thunderer 3.50 1.5 3-1
7 7 Major Fed 2.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Mobster Gun 6.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Mano Dura 12.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Boogie Bode 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 La Marinera 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Strummin 1.40 1.7 3-1
4 4 Purse Thief 10.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Missed the Turn 8.00 5 9-1
7 7 Deeply Hidden 12.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Probationer 30.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Concrete Cruiser 8.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 Spirit Rags 20.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Coming in Hot 12.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Rag Tree 30.00 7.7 15-1
6 6 Dbook 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Reb 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Crafted 0 0-1
1 1 Platinum Ghost 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Crafted 4.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Notorious Sixohtwo 4.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Charge the Castle 3.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Red Line Overdrive 5.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Natorade 15.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Midway Miracle 20.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Bronze Beast 30.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Artwell 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Gone Again 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Midnight Ambition 2.50 1.1 2-1
2 2 Guatape 10.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Lead Foot 12.00 4 8-1
12 12 Golden Buck 10.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Munyhungry 15.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Early Munny 15.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Zaptastic 4.00 5.3 10-1
13 13 Cajun Cruiser 12.00 5.9 11-1
11 11 Scat Danz 30.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Plain and Simple 15.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Remember the Fear 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Stormin Willie 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Baraye 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 Love Appeals 3.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 Qualy 5.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Laura’s Charm 15.00 6.1 11-1
14 14 Pistol 3.00 7 13-1
9 9 Gunesh 20.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 Sara Mia 15.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Gold Del Mar 30.00 9.2 17-1
13 13 Krispy Rice 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Hideki 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Filly Crystal 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 All I Want Is You 5.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Panama Red (IRE) 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Alvina (FR) 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Sixwillberich 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Flat On 4.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Quebrancho 15.00 2.4 4-1
10 10 Twirling Troillet 20.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Bettera 5.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Jet Stream 5.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 No Brake Needed 20.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 Vigano 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Moving to Kentucky 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Main Line Cipher 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Falcon Quest 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Cowboy Luke 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Under Advisement 0 0-1
6 6 Pigalle 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Under Advisement 5.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Fancy 2.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Sabra Tuff 4.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 Harbor Springs 3.50 3.2 6-1
7 7 Scarletta 15.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Floored 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Storms Home 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Frosty Indulgence 4.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Alder 3.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Agoo 6.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 This Is Uscar 8.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Not This Boy 15.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Red State 5.00 5 9-1
2 2 Great Richie M 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Sweet Soddy J 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Devilsgotacause 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Uno Mas Bourbon 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Radical Mischief 10.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Rock N Roll Bolt 5.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Surf City 10.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Warning Signs 20.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Ahandfulofcandy 6.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Sweet Freedom 12.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Dr Timothy 20.00 8.8 17-1
13 13 Bolt Action 5.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Teen Idol 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Map to the Stars 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Cowboy Cache 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 First Bid 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 English Chunnel 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Oscarworthy 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Rebel Red (GB) 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.