Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Cause a Ruckus 0 0-1
6 6 Royal Court 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Bayou Magic 2.50 1.2 2-1
7 7 Auden 3.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Falcon Quest 3.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Cause a Ruckus 4.00 4 7-1
1 1 Left Pocket Money 15.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Gimme Love 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Like a Saltshaker 1.40 1 2-1
5 5 Eternally Grateful 2.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 I’m Wide Awake 3.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Can Man Do 12.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Pico d’Oro 6.00 5 9-1
1 1 Speitful Sam 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Prints Money 10.00 1 2-1
9 9 Alilnalot 5.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Mo Hope 12.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Air Force Cruising 2.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 Maliblue 4.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Baltimore Heart 10.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Tie Breaker Lennie 15.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Clay Kicker 15.00 6.6 13-1
7 7 Keypad 15.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Grand Sam 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Happymac 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Voodoo Zip 6.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 One for Richie 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Leader of Men 2.50 3 6-1
6 6 Huntertown 10.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 J W Ruckus 8.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Improbable Story 20.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Chromed Impulse 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Thestral 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Windy Bay 3.00 2 4-1
1 1 Classic Performer 4.00 3 6-1
6 6 Divinely Bolt 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 Rock Star Doctor 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Je Suis Rapide 15.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Evie’s Encore 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Banjo Chris 0 0-1
1 1 Cafe Racer 10.00 1 2-1
5 5 Trouble’s Roaring 3.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Lieutenant General 6.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Royal Carol 10.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Alcove 2.50 4.2 8-1
9 9 Glacial Power 8.00 5 9-1
8 8 Banjo Chris 5.00 8.3 16-1
16 16 Not So Holy 15.00 9.1 17-1
2 2 He’s Elusive 30.00 9.9 19-1
14 14 D Day 8.00 10.5 20-1
7 7 Sang 15.00 11.7 22-1
12 12 Prince of Power 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Firefight 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Enhanced Scat 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Drobny 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Prospero (IRE) 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Stunningly 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Popperina 6.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Mighty Madison 4.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Sundance Feature 1.40 2.7 5-1
5 5 Our Keepsake 15.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Devil Blue Dress 20.00 4 8-1
8 8 Plum Tricky 8.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Riperton 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Doncho 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Beeline 2.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Otto the Conqueror 6.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Henro 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Normandy Hero 8.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Time for Truth 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Bear River 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Gourmet 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Backstretch Rose 6.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Barstool Babe 3.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Candy Craze 12.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Miss Susan B 15.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Looking for Ginny 10.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Sterling Luck 15.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Oh Macarena 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Charm of the Song 8.00 6 11-1
11 11 Stratospheric 15.00 8.3 16-1
3 3 Bolt’s Broad 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.