Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, June 6, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Munson 0 0-1
5 5 The Toner 15.00 1 2-1
10 10 Sing Sing 6.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Conquering Cat 4.00 2 4-1
9 9 Munson 10.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Magnitude 3.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 El Dandi 20.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Keep It Easy 8.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Fiddling Felix 8.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Summer Vibes 3.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Cash Ransom 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ghostly Gal 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Rose Palace 15.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Margoinabubblebath 4.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Center Stage 6.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Forever Home 5.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Abitibi 15.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Mercy Warren 12.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 For the Biscuit 20.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Dreamster 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Mount Craig 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Higginsville 12.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Pancake House 6.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Speed Institute 20.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Gotta Have Dreams 20.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Fear of Union 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 First Player 12.00 6.2 12-1
12 12 Mandalorian 5.00 7 13-1
6 6 Mo Rum 8.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Charnico 20.00 8.4 16-1
7 7 Paved in Gold 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Lebombo 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Gagliardi 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Django 3.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Oathbreaker 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Simply in Front 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Weigh the Risks 2.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 Kalispera (IRE) 3.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Takemetothebeach 10.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Big Trouble 10.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Modern Sound 15.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Purloin 20.00 8.6 16-1
1 1 Mischievousness 8.00 8.9 17-1
2 2 Sierra Sky 12.00 9.7 18-1
11 11 Cheyenne Moon 30.00 12.3 23-1
15 15 Bella Cruella 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Buttercream Babe 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Cairo Street 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Pendulum 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Bella Haze 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Kodiac Wintergreen (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Miss Enchanted 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Plagne Champagne 15.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Amy Z 12.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Classic Claire 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Up the Creek 4.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Starcourt 3.50 3.7 7-1
9 9 Dark Fury 3.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Leametatrainer 15.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 U Ain’t That Lucky 12.00 8.8 17-1
4 4 Swag Shop 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Phileas Fogg 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Speed Bias 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Prove Worthy 15.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Banishing 15.00 3.1 6-1
12 12 King Ice 20.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Commandperformance 15.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Guntown 20.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Hurry Hurry 6.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 The Prince’s Spur 5.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Nyquick 8.00 7.6 14-1
13 13 Huge Bigly 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 O P Firecracker 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Escapologist 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Hidden Stash 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Camp Hope 3.00 1.4 3-1
9 9 Fuerteventura 12.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Big Blue Line 8.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Tut’s Revenge 15.00 3 6-1
8 8 Johny’s Fireball 3.50 3 6-1
6 6 Barberini 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Cash Equity (FR) 5.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Point Proven 15.00 5.3 10-1
12 12 Bay Street Money 5.00 6 11-1
11 11 Leading the Charge 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Warrior Johny 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Classic Catch 2.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Salute the Stars 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tivy 12.00 1 2-1
8 8 Attache 4.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Junior Bug 12.00 2 4-1
1 1 Cold as Hell 20.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Master of Arms 6.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Cathedral Beach 5.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Global Stage 3.50 3 6-1
7 7 Tiger’s Legacy 5.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Fan the Fire 12.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Saint in the City 15.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Lundberg 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.