Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, June 9, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Grace On Grace 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Kiss Cam 4.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Glamourcents 3.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Rose Rita 6.00 4 8-1
9 9 Sevilla 8.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Baytown Boujee 10.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Voodoo Princess 15.00 5 9-1
2 2 Thunder Bern 12.00 5.5 10-1
11 11 Lovebug 15.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Emy 20.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Preyathousandwords 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Corningstone 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 Mystic Pleasure 2.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Sultry Lass 3.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Sunny Isle Beach 5.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Guana Cay 15.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Lil Kings Princess 15.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Luna Moth 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Spanish Wells 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Flotation Station 6.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Save the Trees 2.50 3.7 7-1
4 4 Copper Echo 12.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Runaway Joke 4.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Al Ameeq 12.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 For Some Reason 6.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Crafted 20.00 8.6 16-1
5 5 Sitka 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Leslie’s Lady Overnight S.) – Leslie’s Lady Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Moonlit Lady 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Tambo 3.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Charlene’s Dream 12.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Legadema 2.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Emery 2.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Pink Lady Lu Sha 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Blue Squall 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Bedazzle ‘Em 3.50 1 2-1
11 11 Raconteuse 10.00 3.4 6-1
12 12 Grapes for Eloise 15.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Shore War 10.00 4 8-1
4 4 Guinevere 10.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Deep Satin 3.00 5.3 10-1
13 13 Scenic Beauty 20.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Saranac Lake 20.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Mixologist 4.00 8 15-1
5 5 Myiyla 15.00 8.2 15-1
9 9 Whappen 12.00 8.7 16-1
3 3 Royal Subject 12.00 8.9 17-1
14 14 Stay Lost 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Purring 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Lemon Latte 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Adrasteia 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Recker Point 0 0-1
Unlimitedpotential 0 0-1
7 7 Lips Say Bliss 4.00 1 2-1
10 10 Sun Thunder 3.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Unlimitedpotential 4.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Recker Point 5.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Elephants Ear 15.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Single Dot Yaht 8.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Midnight Raid 10.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Cartucho 6.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Anthem King 20.00 8.4 16-1
3 3 Native Shaman 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Yesternight 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Hypersport 5.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Joke Sisi (CHI) 4.50 2.5 5-1
12 12 Secret Statement 3.50 3.2 6-1
8 8 Backyard Money 15.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Always Angels 12.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Bru Na Boinne 6.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Proud Foot 4.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Steel Racer 15.00 6.5 12-1
13 13 Music City Star 15.00 7 13-1
2 2 Flamand 20.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 Raindrops On Roses 30.00 8.7 16-1
5 5 Hartful Hope 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Matt Winn S.) – Matt Winn S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Rocketeer 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 West Saratoga 10.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Who Dey 2.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Northern Flame 12.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Luna Tap 20.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Mighty Message 15.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Society Man 12.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Next Level 12.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Nash 1.60 SCRATCH
3 3 Scatify 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Sahalat 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 River Ridge 6.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Mission River 4.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Levanter 5.00 4 8-1
3 3 Maxwell 5.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Point Clear 10.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Bello 15.00 5 9-1
6 6 Big Salt Lick 12.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Fort Sam 10.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Accident 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.