Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Speakinofthedevil 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 J. P. Race 2.50 3 6-1
3 3 Tim Tal 3.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Western Command 4.50 4 8-1
6 6 Express Cruiser 4.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Bettering 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Veracruzin 0 0-1
4 4 Veracruzin 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Summer in Aiken 6.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Red Line Overdrive 2.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 Redhill 5.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Freaky Z 15.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Star Nation 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Midway Miracle 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Run Jalen Run 1.20 1 2-1
1 1 Capital Connection 1.80 1.6 3-1
6 6 Adrift 12.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Lebombo 10.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Returned 15.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Gagliardi 3.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Samurai Prince 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Soaring Bird 2.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 G T Five Hundred 5.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Fitzpatrick 6.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Robo Man 20.00 4 8-1
7 7 Sir Ollie 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Santa Cruiser 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Born Flawless 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Mor Happy Hours 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Noble Bernadette 3.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Tammy’s Cruiser 2.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Pam Pam 3.50 4.5 9-1
2 2 Cause Ima Rose 15.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Blind Speed 12.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Talavera 15.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Elodine 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Malu 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 New Beat 3.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Noriskit Nobiscuit 5.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 I Had That One Too 5.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Broughty Ferry 3.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Ladan 15.00 6 11-1
5 5 Fasta Lavista Baby 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Steampunk 0 0-1
5 5 Stagflation 6.00 1 2-1
8 8 Steampunk 4.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Rose Alabama 6.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Wine and Waves 3.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Rockaway Reef 4.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Avalon Girl 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 So Far So Good 15.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Streets of Paris 8.00 5 9-1
7 7 Ain’t No Other 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Salute the Stars 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Giant Game 8.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Gasoline 4.00 2 4-1
5 5 Midnight Rising 3.50 2.4 5-1
7 7 Super Corinto (ARG) 8.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Classic Catch 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Warrior Johny 5.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Tall Boy 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Yell County 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Trumptastic 3.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Bernin Hot 12.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Macaw 3.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Always Be Smart 6.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Availability 5.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Bettera 8.00 7 13-1
7 7 Pursuit of Power 8.00 8.5 16-1
8 8 Azoi 15.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.