Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, June 13, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Twirling Troillet 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Golden Buck 6.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Sunday Spirit 2.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Brother Rice 1.40 3.2 6-1
6 6 Hezmorethanready 10.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Bajan Boy 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Join the Dance 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Caroline Street 2.50 1.3 3-1
2 2 Stir Crazy 2.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Valentina Day 5.00 2 4-1
6 6 Royal Take Charge 8.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Samay (PER) 8.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Jungle Juice (IRE) 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Charlie Tolu 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Mo Hair Sam 4.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Spiralizer 2.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Morlock 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Asleep At Eight 6.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Hedge 10.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 El Cordobes 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tartufo 1.40 1 2-1
4 4 Cool Quartet 2.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Classic King 12.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Khozan’s Success 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Improbable Story 20.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Cox Canyon 4.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Shortlist 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Run Carson 10.00 1 2-1
1 1 Sketch (IRE) 3.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Okiro 4.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Bear River 2.50 4 8-1
2 2 Hold My Bourbon 15.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Prince of Power 20.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Smokey Smokey 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tell Me When 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Sparkle of Hope 2.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Je Suis Rapide 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Crackalacking 4.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Addicted to Love 12.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Baytown Lovely 3.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Peek 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Lou’s Legacy 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Bold Ambition 5.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Remarkable Mo 6.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Accident 12.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Air It Out 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Forced Errors 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Badge of War 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Movin’ On Up 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Mrs. Astor 2.50 2 4-1
11 11 Tarneema 3.00 3 6-1
1 1 Spartan Queen 10.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Evita 20.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Yarborough 12.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Robin Sage 20.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Maria’s Revenge 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Wits and Wagers 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Mo Shiro 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Best Seller 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Cairo Street 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Janey Creed 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.