Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, July 11, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Rocco Strong 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Accidental Hero 6.00 2 4-1
9 9 People Force 8.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 I Am the Law 3.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Empty Tomb 4.50 4.4 8-1
10 10 Gut Feeling 15.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Higher Quality 15.00 6 11-1
11 11 Bossmakinbossmoves 10.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Bold Victory 20.00 8.2 16-1
3 3 Horse Be With You 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Mason Mania 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 8 Sweetest Princess 50.00 1 2-1
9 10 Toned Up 2.50 3.1 6-1
8 9 Amanda’s Folly 2.00 7.2 14-1
2 1 Rhombique 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Sabalenka 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Be Your Best (IRE) 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Freydis the Red (FR) 5.00 SCRATCH
1 2 No Show Sammy Jo (GB) 3.50 SCRATCH
1A 7 Avenue Niel (IRE) 3.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Aspen Grove (IRE) 1.40 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Mia Nipotina 15.00 1 2-1
2 1 Our Reward 15.00 1 2-1
5 5 Dreaming of Carli 6.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Going for Glory 6.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Miss Maximus 4.00 1.5 3-1
10 11 Needed 5.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Outta the Cloud 30.00 2.2 4-1
1A 10 La Decente 8.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Neigh Jude 3.50 3.2 6-1
9 9 Punch the Clock 8.00 3.7 7-1
11 12 Widow 30.00 4.4 8-1
1 2 La Indecente 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Shoshanah 8.00 1 2-1
7 8 Shootoutthelights 4.00 1.5 3-1
2 1 Lady Milagro 8.00 3.6 7-1
4 3 Run for the Hills 2.00 3.8 7-1
9 10 Bustin Bay 3.50 5.4 10-1
1 4 L Street Lady 5.00 6.9 13-1
8 9 All That Magic 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Sunday Shoes 10.00 SCRATCH
6 7 L J’s Emma 6.00 SCRATCH
1A 6 Lady Mia (FR) 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Stormy’s Dreaming 10.00 1 2-1
8 8 Call Bob 6.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Brown Eyed Cat 4.50 3.6 7-1
3 3 Tomacon 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Romantic Charmer 12.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 D C Boy’s 10.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 New York Scrappy 3.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Clancy Fancy 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Concorde Spirit 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Crescendo’s Rein 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Flaming Glory 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Selectively Sweet 20.00 2.1 4-1
9 9 Teca 5.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Honestly 15.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Episode 8.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Strong State 2.50 4.4 8-1
6 6 My Vanilla 20.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Will Not Be Swayed 3.50 5 10-1
7 7 My Lady Bae 12.00 8.3 16-1
8 8 Mean Eileen 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Katerina Ristova 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Dare to Breeze 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Amore Sofia 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Bisa 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mischief Maxey 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Mezcalifornia 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mz Big Bucks 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Weekend Rags 6.00 2.3 4-1
11 11 Speightful Lily 1.60 3.2 6-1
10 10 Sunday Girl 6.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Solib 4.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Queens Dancer 30.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Concerti 15.00 6.2 12-1
12 12 Bank On Anna 12.00 7.9 15-1
13 13 Mosienko 2.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Patria 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Latest Edition 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Im Just Kiddin 2.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Marco T. 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Spring Magic 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Silent Melody 6.00 3.4 6-1
13 13 Crushed Ice 6.00 3.4 6-1
11 11 Just Music 2.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Grab the Glory 15.00 6.6 12-1
12 12 Miss Fashionista 2.50 7.4 14-1
8 8 More Mango 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Elle Est Forte 3.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Kannon Fire 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Diamond Status 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Shigeko 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Lakeside Getaway 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 More Than Glory 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Sizzle 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Salute the Stars 6.00 1 2-1
3 2 Film Star 5.00 1.3 2-1
1A 6 Quality Chic 15.00 1.7 3-1
6 7 Rocket Can 4.50 1.9 4-1
7 8 Blazing Sevens 3.50 2.6 5-1
4 3 Artorius 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 4 Warrior Johny 10.00 2.8 5-1
8 9 Signator 12.00 3.8 7-1
9 10 Classic Catch 6.00 5 10-1
10 11 Untreated 12.00 8.4 16-1
1 5 Laughing Boy 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Schuylerville S.) – Schuylerville S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Aoraki 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 West Memorial 20.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Slang 10.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Whatintheliteral 10.00 7.7 14-1
7 7 Dreamgirl 15.00 7.7 14-1
11 11 The Queens M G 30.00 7.9 15-1
10 10 Viggiedal 4.50 7.9 15-1
9 9 Long Neck Paula 8.00 8 15-1
5 5 Complexion 3.50 8.9 17-1
3 3 Sherbini 4.50 9.2 17-1
6 6 Carmen’s Candy Jar 6.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sugar Hook 8.00 1 2-1
16 16 Always Be Smart 4.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Vincita 12.00 1.9 4-1
12 12 Caesar’s Ghost 20.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Parkway 4.00 2.6 5-1
11 11 Bolt d’Plata 15.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Get It to Matthew 20.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Ghost Prince 50.00 5 9-1
10 10 Battlefield Park 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Kick a Buck 1.80 SCRATCH
13 13 Bookworm 50.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Bourbon Outlaw 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Houlton 2.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Il Siciliano 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 El Alacran 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Comanche Peak (GB) 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.