Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Friday, July 12, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Reliable Lady 0 0-1
3 3 Reliable Lady 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Martingale 4.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Chanteuse 1.20 3.4 6-1
6 6 Ascension 15.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Lord I Wonder 2.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Corona Princess 30.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Dillinger 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Paschal Moon 4.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Stormquist 2.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Giant’s Fire 4.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Unclecharliesgift 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Muazarah 12.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Solo in Paris 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Passive Management (GB) 0 0-1
2 1 Daily Grind 15.00 1 2-1
3 2 Tiz Wicked Strong 10.00 1.9 4-1
5 6 Tom Collins 5.00 2 4-1
1A 5 Storm Ready 1.20 2.7 5-1
1 4 Steadfast Resolve 1.20 2.9 5-1
7 8 Inherent Promise 6.00 3.9 7-1
4 3 Passive Management (GB) 3.00 4 7-1
6 7 Clever Mischief 8.00 5.7 11-1
8 9 Prairie Dunes 8.00 SCRATCH
10 11 Military Road 1.00 SCRATCH
11 12 Commander of Truth 2.00 SCRATCH
9 10 Salacious 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Yarrow 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Twenty Six Black 3.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Inflation Nation (IRE) 6.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Cigarette Boat 6.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Tunisian Spring 2.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Aleah Aleah 20.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Sesame Seed Bagel 8.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Super Chief 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 What’s Up Bro 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Valley Victory 0 0-1
Lady Moscato 0 0-1
Disco Deano 0 0-1
11 12 Disco Deano 30.00 1 2-1
6 7 Chateau 5.00 1.1 2-1
9 10 Saffa’s Day 2.50 2.8 5-1
8 9 Cold as Hell 12.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Gangly 3.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Charging Aero 20.00 4.3 8-1
7 8 Joking Way 15.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Funny Joke 8.00 4.6 9-1
1A 6 Kant Beat the Rock 8.00 5 9-1
1 1 Jake Rocks 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Ribbons and Medals 20.00 SCRATCH
12 13 Motorcade 10.00 SCRATCH
10 11 Rock the Weekend 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Strengthnguidance 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Concrete Cruiser 6.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 King’s Leap 10.00 4 8-1
10 10 Classic Time 2.50 4.6 9-1
1 1 Corvus 20.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Replevin 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Reteko 4.50 5.5 10-1
5 5 Storm the Streets 10.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Tapwrits Temper 20.00 8.4 16-1
7 7 Pacific Highway 15.00 9.3 18-1
13 13 Brink 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Fire Pit 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 America’s Honor 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mauritius 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Palace View (IRE) 4.50 1 2-1
13 13 Just for Luck 8.00 1.2 2-1
12 12 Front Man 10.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Gilded Craken 10.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Heathguard 15.00 2.9 5-1
11 11 Our Country 8.00 3 6-1
4 4 Classic Creation 6.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Sinful Dancer 50.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Devil’s Cay 10.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Leftembehind 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Addicted to You 15.00 6.1 11-1
14 14 Strapped 2.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Gun Maestro 4.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Ski Country 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Drunk On Sake 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Wilton S.) – Wilton S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Dazzling Move 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Miss Justify 3.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Lady Moscato 10.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Bells Beach 2.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Striker Has Dial 3.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Courbe 6.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Windy Walk 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Coronation Cup S.) – Coronation Cup S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Ever So Sweet (IRE) 5.00 1 2-1
9 9 Cloudwalker 6.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Kairyu (IRE) 15.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Twirling Queen 8.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Toupie 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Dancing Duchess 15.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 In Our Time 30.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 Baraye 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Value Area 4.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Do Gooder 4.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Golden Degree 3.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Star of Mystery (GB) 1.80 SCRATCH
4 4 Pipsy (IRE) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Pujol 15.00 1 2-1
12 12 Dangerous Driver 15.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Smooth an Easy 20.00 2.7 5-1
10 10 Fire Baron 20.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Torpedo Run 4.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Comanche Peak (GB) 6.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Over and Ollie 6.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Remember the Chief 8.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Guile 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Bookworm 30.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Beach Blanket 15.00 5.6 11-1
13 13 Always Be Smart 3.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Adventurous Spirit 2.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Mano E Mano 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.