Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 12, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Miss Jeopardy 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Gridlock 3.50 1.8 3-1
7 7 Miss Easy 3.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Miss Sayely 4.00 3.4 6-1
11 11 Motown Mika 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Concerti 8.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Xtra Extraordinary 12.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Very Wealthy 15.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Karma Ghia 30.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Kachow 30.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Sparkle of Hope 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Governing Party 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Paraclete 8.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Geometry 5.00 4.1 8-1
12 12 Hamlin 15.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Executive 3.50 5.5 10-1
9 9 Sprint Out Pass 12.00 6.1 11-1
6 6 Flambeau 20.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Lawless Ways 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Could Do 20.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Plensa 10.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 The Hidden Chamber 20.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Pnutbutter Whiskey 50.00 8.1 15-1
13 13 Sound Cause 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Two Sharp 0.80 1 2-1
5 5 Coastal Invasion 6.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Lightning Myqueen 20.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Connive 5.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Stormy Mitole 8.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Floored 30.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Je Suis Rapide 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Zadorsky 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Downtownchalybrown 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Global Sensation 3.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Yes I’m a Beast 5.00 1.7 3-1
12 12 Alpine Thunder 4.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Got Thunder 20.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Gunner Bay 15.00 4 7-1
4 4 Hi Yah 12.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 One Cool Dude 10.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Eddie M 15.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Palace Kitten 50.00 10.5 20-1
7 7 Solidify 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Printrack 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Tkac 10.00 1 2-1
11 11 Zap d’Etat 15.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Lucky Mischief 2.50 4.4 8-1
5 5 Blue Chair Bay 3.50 4.9 9-1
1 1 Johny’s Rendezvous 6.00 5 9-1
10 10 Authentic Style 12.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Maui Strong 15.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Sand Cast 20.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 El Muheet 8.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 The Fed’s Plot 20.00 8.6 16-1
3 3 Love That Symphony 20.00 8.7 16-1
8 8 My Father’s Place 15.00 9.1 17-1
13 13 Seattle Road 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Giant Mischief 1.20 1 2-1
6 6 Lofty Adjudicator 10.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Bromley 4.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 Kavod 12.00 4 7-1
2 2 Bourbon Heist 6.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Cyclone Mischief 3.50 5 9-1
7 7 Midnight Escape 30.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Gold Luck 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Taverna 4.00 1 2-1
12 12 My Lil Punky 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Truthorconsequence 15.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Keepsake 3.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Miss Pharaoh 10.00 9.2 17-1
11 11 Super Costly 20.00 9.3 17-1
3 3 Mo Pics Please 12.00 9.3 18-1
10 10 Ceebee 20.00 9.4 18-1
5 5 Princess Aliyah 10.00 9.6 18-1
13 13 Free Passage 30.00 11.4 21-1
7 7 Scribble 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Mezcal Mule 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Contemplate 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Dixiana) – Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Dixiana

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Caitlinhergrtness 0 0-1
3 3 She Feels Pretty 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Waves of Mischief 12.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Oversubscribed (GB) 6.00 5.6 10-1
8 8 Pounce 12.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 Candala (FR) 4.50 6.5 12-1
2 2 Caitlinhergrtness 12.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Pin Up Betty 20.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Buchu 15.00 8.7 16-1
9 9 Grayosh 8.00 8.8 17-1
5 5 Soprano (IRE) 3.50 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Komorebino Omoide (JPN) 1.80 1 2-1
10 10 Baton Rouge 4.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Parchment Party 3.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Ben Franklin 15.00 5.4 10-1
13 13 Creative Minister 8.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Elusive Target 15.00 6 11-1
6 6 Mackman 12.00 6.3 12-1
12 12 Surface to Air 20.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 Bartulia 30.00 8.8 17-1
4 4 King Kumbalay 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Bourbon Resolve 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Seeking Unity 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 River in Egypt 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Blue Coast 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 The Brigade 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Coal Battle 12.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Strummin 15.00 6.4 12-1
12 12 Curahee 4.50 7.1 13-1
7 7 Classic Example 10.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Enterdadragon 8.00 7.7 15-1
1 1 Poster 5.00 7.9 15-1
11 11 Lovely Regalo 20.00 9.5 18-1
3 3 Boy Boy 8.00 9.7 18-1
2 2 Soleil Volant 10.00 9.8 19-1
10 10 Towner Too 30.00 10.5 20-1
15 15 Front End 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Look to the Cross 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Stashu 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Purse Thief 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.