Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Grace Given 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Saranac Lake 1.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Tres Chic (ARG) 2.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Fasta Lavista Baby 20.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 No Trust 12.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Floris 30.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Geez Eloise 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Boutwell Time 3.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Taco Cat Backwards 15.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Anna’s Promise 2.50 5.5 10-1
6 6 Super Maxima 15.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Dancetheniteaway 10.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Bayou Candy 15.00 8.5 16-1
4 4 Sweet Marie 12.00 8.9 17-1
9 9 St. Albans Raid 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Patch O’Brien 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Mister Moscato 3.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Coulditbemajic 2.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Polar Bear Plunge 5.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Tiverton 10.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Mission River 3.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Track Light 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Princess Is Olivia 1.40 1 2-1
6 6 Miss Jeopardy 2.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Balladry 3.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Itsablingthing 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Frango Electrico 12.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Very Wealthy 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Staygoldponyboy 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Piquant 3.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Ace On the Turn 15.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Real Conviction 4.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Vodka N Gingerale 8.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Big Bourbon River 8.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Bonified Crazy 10.00 8 15-1
2 2 Spenard 12.00 8.2 15-1
7 7 Hope of Glory 15.00 8.4 16-1
3 3 Wayllen Richard 15.00 8.8 17-1
12 12 Mister Rosso 8.00 8.9 17-1
13 13 Graydaria 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Mazzeo 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Dr Kringle 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 God of Wine 5.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 More Than Five 3.50 4.1 8-1
8 8 Twirling Troillet 6.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Lumiere 15.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Schifty’s Haloid 10.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Roundball Rock 12.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Cruisin and Boozin 12.00 8.5 16-1
7 7 Gold Search 5.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Itwillbefun 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Poverty With Aview 20.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Princess of Omaha 15.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Hear the Queen 3.00 6.7 13-1
11 11 Sweet Music 4.50 7.3 14-1
4 4 Global Allure 4.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Swooped Up Lilly 12.00 9.5 18-1
9 9 Spun Up 15.00 9.5 18-1
2 2 Cuvee Creed 8.00 9.7 18-1
5 5 Halfin 15.00 10.8 20-1
3 3 Mac and Cheese 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Apollo Rising 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Curlin’s Gesture 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Lucency 5.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 The Thunderer 8.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Unstable Prince 5.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Interlock Empire 8.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Badge of War 10.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 National Eclipse 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Leo Toro 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Tweetster 3.00 2 4-1
2 2 Connive 12.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Little Jamie 4.00 3.2 6-1
10 10 Union Mist 10.00 3.7 7-1
13 13 Paradise Lane 6.00 4.7 9-1
12 12 Lemon Muffin 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Chilled 4.50 5.4 10-1
3 3 Broughty Ferry 10.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Let’s Duet 20.00 6 11-1
9 9 Come as You Are 20.00 8.8 17-1
11 11 Lightbulb Moment 20.00 9.3 18-1
6 6 East Shore 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Classy’n Connected 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Stagflation 0 0-1
12 12 Proud Divi 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Stagflation 6.00 1.2 2-1
9 9 Streets of Paris 12.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 So Far So Good 20.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Tiz Sweet Emotion 4.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Princess Pom Pom 4.50 3.6 7-1
3 3 Gather the Facts 20.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Bam Bam 5.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Gambi 30.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Here’s Gracie 12.00 6.9 13-1
11 11 Star Watch 10.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Hand It Over 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.