Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 2, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Real Eleve 0 0-1
1 1 Rockible 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 M G Dash 2.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Real Eleve 3.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Tino in Toga 12.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Klimt Master 15.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Spirit Dragon 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Smilensaycheese 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Sand Devil 0.80 1.5 3-1
5 5 Corvus 10.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Buttah 10.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 McDiesel 15.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 New Matthew 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Good Reunion 0 0-1
6 7 War Stride 1.80 1 2-1
2 1 Neuschwanstein 2.50 1.5 3-1
3 2 Good Reunion 6.00 3.8 7-1
7 8 My Cool Hand Luke 12.00 3.8 7-1
1A 5 Giant’s Fire 4.00 5 9-1
5 6 Midnight Worker 15.00 5 10-1
1 4 Devil’s Cay 4.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Muazarah 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Malu 2.00 1 2-1
3 2 Elliptic 1.80 2.2 4-1
1 6 Gone and Forgotten 6.00 2.3 4-1
5 4 Racing Colors 12.00 5.2 10-1
6 5 Carbon 30.00 5.8 11-1
1A 7 Mosienko 6.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Bustin Bay 6.00 SCRATCH
7 8 Bernt Again 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 8 Burn Rubber 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Stormy’s Dreaming 5.00 3.7 7-1
1 2 Solo Flight 5.00 4 8-1
6 6 Break the Fall 1.40 4.4 8-1
1A 7 Drive Thru 5.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Wind Dancer 8.00 4.7 9-1
2 1 Maximus Monster 20.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Sicilianaire 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Honorary Degree 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Air Show 1.80 1.4 3-1
7 7 Quick Hammer 2.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Daddy Knows 12.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Union Lights 8.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Always Charming 15.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Dads Good Runner 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 St. Benedicts Prep 0.60 1 2-1
1 1 Rachel’s Rock 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Simply Stated 8.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Security Code 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Captainsdaughter 10.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Early Edition 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Winter’s Ghost 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Because the Night 4.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Front Man 8.00 3 6-1
7 7 Pipes and Drums 3.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Higher Quality 12.00 4 8-1
8 8 Mr. Swagger 3.50 4.1 8-1
1 1 Venge 8.00 6.1 11-1
10 10 Bar Fourteen 15.00 6.6 13-1
9 9 Co Conspirator 30.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Prince of Joy 30.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.