Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, January 11, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Iridescent 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Java Buzz 8.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Vinsanity 4.50 2 4-1
5 5 Muazarah 6.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Augustine Red 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Narciso Dali 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Ladies S.) – Ladies S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Comparative 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Tizzy in the Sky 0.80 1.3 2-1
5 5 Julia Shining 2.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Evidencias (BRZ) 6.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Just Music 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Conniving 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 York Tavern 1.20 1.8 3-1
4 4 Masterwork 10.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Always a Warrior 3.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Majestic Arc 20.00 4 7-1
3 3 King Freud 12.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Camm’ Duke 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 D Day Sky 1.40 1 2-1
6 6 Final Denile 4.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Secret Treasure 6.00 3.4 7-1
1 1 Big Rich 5.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Golden Purchase 8.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Concorde Spirit 10.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Just Be Honest 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 7 Social Hour 4.50 1 2-1
3 2 T Kraft 2.50 2.2 4-1
1 3 Grand Commander 8.00 4 8-1
1A 4 Gourmet Dinner 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 5 One Nine Hundred 2.00 4.5 9-1
5 6 Senor Poncho 3.50 5.3 10-1
7 8 Sweetenthedeal 30.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Orgonite 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Frizzante 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Melt With You 6.00 2 4-1
6 6 Waitlist 3.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Scat Tu Tap 8.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Traffic Master 5.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Strapped 5.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Senegal 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Bells Beach 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Next On Stage 20.00 1.4 3-1
10 10 Bernietakescharge 15.00 1.5 3-1
11 11 Fade to Grey 6.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Stamp of Approval 30.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Brown Suga Babe 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Patty Cakes 10.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Points Is Points 6.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Prides Crossing 3.50 5.1 10-1
8 8 Dot Marie 30.00 6 11-1
1A 12 Save Us Melania 8.00 SCRATCH
1 2 Sarir 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Tra Lad 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Graywing 3.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 On the Hill 5.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 He Has It All 12.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Courageoous Oh La 20.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Boss Three O Two 4.50 4.7 9-1
12 12 Heavyweight Champs 10.00 5 10-1
10 10 Collected Special 20.00 5.1 10-1
13 13 Messi the Magician 30.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 I Got Busted 10.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Stop the Spread 20.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Kid Billy 6.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Golden Arm 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Joker On Fire 0 0-1
10 10 Vekinda 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Prince Valiant 4.00 2 4-1
3 3 Rock Star Rebel 12.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Free Dance 8.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Joker On Fire 10.00 3.8 7-1
11 11 Total Silence 12.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Disco Dervish 30.00 5.1 10-1
12 12 First Pitch 30.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Ragtime Prankster 20.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Attorney Wade 10.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 E Z Bourbon 20.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Late Night Boss 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.