Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 16, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Short Shift 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Shaman Princess 3.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Dat Dares Right 12.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Troubled Luck 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Looks First 1.20 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Scoot Daddy 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Top Gunner 2.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Surveillance 2.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Five Dreams 12.00 3 6-1
6 6 Clear the Air 1.80 3.8 7-1
3 3 More Vino 50.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Bad Boy Butch 0 0-1
1 3 Dark Devil 1.40 1 2-1
6 5 Glint 5.00 1.4 3-1
5 4 True Connection 8.00 2.2 4-1
3 1 Dialbolico 12.00 2.3 4-1
2 7 Scottish Storm 1.60 3.5 7-1
7 6 Bad Boy Butch 10.00 4.1 8-1
4 2 Findaname 30.00 7.8 15-1
1A 9 Good as He Gets 1.40 SCRATCH
2B 8 Aint No Joke 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Quiet Wisdom 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Russian Realm 3.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Neural Network 4.50 3.4 7-1
5 5 B D Saints 2.50 4.5 9-1
2 2 Kaz Sugar Bank 15.00 5 9-1
1 1 Kolomio 4.50 5.6 10-1
4 4 Bossmakinbossmoves 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Forrest City 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Daufuskie Island 4.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 J D Factor 10.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Stolen Magic 1.80 2.3 4-1
8 8 Have You Heard 6.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Life and Light 30.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Wake Surf 4.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Confabulation 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Whatchatalkinabout 1.00 1 2-1
6 6 Caldo Candy 8.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Yo Banana Boy 3.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Aggelos the Great 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 Acoustic Ave 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Lotsa Trouble 10.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 He’s Got It 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Castle Island 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Paddington 1.60 2 4-1
6 6 Ice Time 12.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Because the Night 20.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Engineer Empire 5.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 I See You Lookin 12.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Portos 10.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Prince of Chill 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Nilo’s Rose 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Nick’s Notion 10.00 3 6-1
2 2 Heavenly Light 3.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Misseliofwar 20.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Gaga’s Hamsome 5.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Higher Force 6.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Furry Fox 3.50 5.9 11-1
1 1 Marilyn’s Ny Pride 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Dream On Cara 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Mia Nipotina 10.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Better Be Smart 6.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Cuprite 6.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Miss Uproar 8.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Nikki Brainburst 5.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 I’m Kidding 2.50 2.9 5-1
3 3 Eddies Rocket 30.00 6 11-1
1 1 Good Mission 4.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.