Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 16, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Strawberry Sundae 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 She’s Gone d’Wild 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Realitos 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Miss Kennedy 4.00 4 8-1
6 6 Our Little Girl 5.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Fitts N Starts 8.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Averi Ever After 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Manny’s Kat 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 All About Tonite 2.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Whiskey and Easy 3.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Itzcoatl 3.00 4 8-1
5 5 Shaman Sez 8.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Corked 10.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Love a Fighter 15.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Come On Come On 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Carolina Smokeshow 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Fun to Run 3.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Amadora’s Empire 3.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Candybelle 3.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Talksalot 10.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Midnight Blaze 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Goldzone 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 William’s Legacy 3.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Mo Diva 3.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Walksonwater 5.00 4 8-1
8 8 Perfect Dixie Lady 20.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Clearly Bella 12.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Reese’s World 20.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Mallory Unbridled 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Encino 1.20 1 2-1
5 5 Accretive 3.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Call Me Fast 3.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Confidence Game 10.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Love Me Not 15.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Giant Game 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Behemah Star 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Highland Creek 4.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Woods N Water 3.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Benoit 6.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Sonya Knows Better 12.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Mi Solution 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Highly Wicked 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Fast Flame 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Bet Towinit 4.50 1.3 3-1
1 1 Powdered Sugar 2.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Incognito Burrito 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Mischief Princess 5.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Majestic Rags 8.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Baytown Boujee 12.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Elsie No Nack 8.00 6 11-1
8 8 Honor His Half 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Motel Patel 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Joejoe Go 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 One Improbable 12.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Todo Men 6.00 4 8-1
8 8 Proudly Hailed (GB) 2.50 4.8 9-1
2 2 Crooked Bullet 12.00 5.6 11-1
14 14 Cat Fast 5.00 8.8 17-1
13 13 This Is Your Time 4.50 9.2 17-1
9 9 Our Sliceof Heaven 20.00 12.2 23-1
6 6 Mega Magic 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Regained Power 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Speedini 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Dune a Vetta 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Restore (FR) 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 My Southern Girl 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Princess Pom Pom 2.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Elodine 3.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Oh I Giggle 8.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Pure Hickory 8.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Never Walk Alone 12.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Lynna 8.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Shehasanattitude 20.00 8.9 17-1
5 5 Acceleratedvictory 20.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.