Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, February 13, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Itzcoatl 0 0-1
3 3 Findaway 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Cupid’s War 3.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Secession 6.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Whole Lotta Lute 10.00 4 7-1
2 2 Manny’s Kat 8.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Itzcoatl 3.50 5.4 10-1
6 6 Surprise Road Trip 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Betsy’s All In 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Smart Izzy 4.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Canadian Carla 10.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Queen of the Moon 4.50 3.4 7-1
9 9 Crawfish Burl 12.00 4 8-1
7 7 Coushatta Cutie 8.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Easy Aces 10.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Artie’s Deal 20.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Adiamondinthestorm 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Golden City 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Now Yus Cant Leave 0 0-1
Sharp Flame 0 0-1
8 8 Cairo Street 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Now Yus Cant Leave 3.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Cora’s Legacy 6.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Jocasta 4.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Where’s the Wine 6.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Capella Red 8.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Miss Maximus 8.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Cloey Attack 12.00 8.4 16-1
1 1 Sharp Flame 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Rightandjust 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 My Bariley 6.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Il Capitano 30.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Super Wise 12.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Mischief’s Machine 4.50 5.5 10-1
8 8 Silent Power 6.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Cool Quartet 4.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 He Gots to Go 6.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Smoothdini 4.50 7.4 14-1
10 10 Fabled Ruler 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Onasa 8.00 1 2-1
11 11 Premium 15.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Crime Spree 4.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Classic Moment 3.00 1.9 4-1
10 10 Top of My Game 12.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Reckless Ransom 12.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Julia’s Warrior 8.00 4.5 9-1
12 12 Spectrier 12.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Mon Ami Fuzzie 12.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Dixie Street 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Heza Priority 5.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Flashy Premo 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Restore (FR) 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Motel Patel 5.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Sinatra 8.00 5 10-1
7 7 Extravagant Prince 20.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Speedini 8.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Regained Power 3.50 7.1 13-1
3 3 Munnystruck 8.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Mega Magic 6.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Tempus Volat 8.00 8.4 16-1
14 14 Caribbean Dream 5.00 SCRATCH
11 11 First Samaritan 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Chases Magic 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Dune a Vetta 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Drewvictory 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Hoist the Gold 1.20 1 2-1
1 1 Uncashed 3.50 1.5 3-1
7 7 Mr Fillip 10.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Machine Gun Man 8.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Gunner Bay 4.50 6.9 13-1
5 5 Arro Smash 8.00 7 13-1
2 2 Happy American 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Lebowski 0 0-1
8 8 Scorpius 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Lebowski 4.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 Redacted 10.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Todo Men 6.00 3.4 6-1
11 11 Reteko 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Thermoscat 10.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Lemon Sohn 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Strategic Force 8.00 6.6 13-1
9 9 Che (IRE) 6.00 7.8 15-1
10 10 Ambitiously 3.50 9.6 18-1
15 15 Pretty Capable 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Oliverio 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 The Commack Kid 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Just Nate 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Cat Fast 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Vekoma Kid 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Two Jet 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Drop Dead Sexy 12.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Alexaplayborntorun 8.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Stormy Valentine 12.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Ours and Theirs 5.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Zipping Molly 6.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Blue Ridge Romance 15.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Cece Wave 5.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Ann’s Storm 12.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Lake Marie 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.