Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, February 16, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 City of Love 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Slick and Fast 3.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 My Pal Sweet 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Dude Drop Kid 8.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Purrrfect Rhythm 2.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Go Brother Go 10.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Catchin Drama 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Mischief Joke 0 0-1
4 4 Supremely 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Chi Town Hustler 3.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Prince James 3.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Mischief Joke 6.00 5 9-1
7 7 Paddy’s House 10.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 B W P Spirit 5.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Mark the Moose 8.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Flashy Premo 50.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Embrasser 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 Romany Road 6.00 2 4-1
10 10 Acousticat 4.50 2.1 4-1
8 8 Sell the Buffalo 8.00 2.2 4-1
11 11 Ez Tree Ates 3.50 2.4 4-1
2 2 Classic Embrace 15.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Blushing Kam 4.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Gouvernatrice 30.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Golden Bonita 15.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Izar 30.00 8.7 16-1
1 1 Cheval B 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Freedom Forever 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Risky Priority 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Dixie Street 5.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Half Again 6.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Drewmazing 4.50 5.3 10-1
5 5 Lovely Sassicaia 6.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Munnings Catsle 6.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Totally Addicted 4.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 El Deal Me Aces 5.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Belle Cherie 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Classic Claire 6.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Peak Earnings (GB) 15.00 4 7-1
6 6 Pula 8.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Signing 15.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Storms of Life 10.00 4.5 8-1
11 11 Max’s Redemption 3.50 4.7 9-1
10 10 Sunday Tiff 6.00 5 9-1
3 3 Tabor Time 20.00 6.7 13-1
12 12 I’m Bleu Too 15.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Super Stormy 20.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Curls Nite Out 12.00 7.7 14-1
13 13 Mairsils First 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Miss Harmonic 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Native Red 10.00 1 2-1
4 4 Blame Me Seriously 12.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 Hard Line 8.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 The Wicked Cat 4.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Cajun Coaster 12.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Regatta Bay 15.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Wicked as Haggart 3.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Watchingtime 5.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 American Guy 20.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Political Agenda 12.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Conejo Chapin 6.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Federalism 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Distorted d’Oro 12.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Just Better 3.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Cairo Dream 10.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Past Tense 5.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Sabalenka 6.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Sweet Alyssa 15.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Therearenorules 10.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Classic Performer 8.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Paint Me Perfect 8.00 7.6 14-1
15 15 Mercy Warren 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 I Had That One Too 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Gin Gin 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Ba Dee Yah 4.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Emilyhasherturn 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Navarrian 1.40 1 2-1
7 7 Contraband Early 3.50 2.3 4-1
12 12 You Good 10.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Aries Honor 10.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Witchology 6.00 6 11-1
9 9 Astrology Wonowon 15.00 8.4 16-1
11 11 Last Resolve 20.00 8.5 16-1
10 10 Rexinator 20.00 8.6 16-1
5 5 Iwannabeamachoman 15.00 9.2 17-1
1 1 Valid Early 30.00 10.1 19-1
8 8 Star Rouge 20.00 10.3 19-1
3 3 Iron Fortune 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Flamingthunderbird 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Greatizlove 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.