Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Monday, February 17, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Skip the Line 0.80 1 2-1
6 6 Brilliant Call 2.50 3.8 7-1
2 2 Puckster 3.50 4.9 9-1
3 3 La Boucane 20.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Rosenow 20.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Rayfield 20.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Sense You Asked 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 A Wicked Number 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Call Me Susan 10.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Kinsley Grace 10.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Becky’sgottahaveit 4.00 3 6-1
3 3 Love in the Dark 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Eve of Eve 10.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Tittle 10.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 It’s Been Real 5.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Congrats Cadet 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Sweet Alexis 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Mo Smoking 6.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Emilyhasherturn 5.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Anita’s Vision 10.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Saved by Grace 3.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Pat Hand Girl 15.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Drewsilla 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Olivia G 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Bandon Woods 0 0-1
1 1 Boitano 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Z Z’s Prince 4.50 1.5 3-1
11 11 Hoodlum 6.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Twoko Bay 15.00 1.9 3-1
9 9 Shady McGee (IRE) 10.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Firewater Jake 15.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Seven Channels 10.00 4 7-1
5 5 Shortlist 15.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Niles Channel 15.00 5.3 10-1
12 12 All About Tonite 20.00 8 15-1
3 3 Ski Patrol 3.50 SCRATCH
10 10 X J Rascal (IRE) 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Can’t Deny It 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Instant Replay 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Handsome Pants 4.50 1.2 2-1
7 7 Furio 3.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Joejoe Go 4.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Perry County 12.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Mobetterthangood 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Warp Nine 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Magistrate 4.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Jungle Law 10.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Higginsville 8.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Paved in Gold 8.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Interlude 10.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Na Pali Joe 10.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Berkus (FR) 6.00 4.6 9-1
13 13 Sharp Strike 12.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Storm Force 20.00 5.5 10-1
11 11 Max S 30.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Trouble Show 12.00 9.3 18-1
6 6 Grand Academic 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Trouble in Love 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Itwillbefun 10.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Mrs. Mendelssohn 8.00 3.4 7-1
1 1 Gerlin’s Empire 8.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Prima Bella 12.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Pondering 3.50 4.6 9-1
4 4 Evanescence 3.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Stable Currency 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 D Day Reunion 12.00 1 2-1
3 3 Bettera 5.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Ez Roll 4.50 5.7 11-1
8 8 Kake’s Arrow 3.50 6 11-1
9 9 Last Attack 6.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 C’Est Magnifique 10.00 7 13-1
6 6 Faith Runner 20.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Gotta Keep Him 12.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Gorilla Trek 8.00 7.9 15-1
11 11 You’re On Mute 10.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 If I Were You 20.00 10.2 19-1
15 15 Cloud Forest 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Battleoflexington 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Kick a Buck 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Norwich 4.50 SCRATCH
12 12 He’s a Fine Baby 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Black Sword 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Big Chopper 15.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Clear as a Bele 6.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Prodigy Paradise 15.00 2 4-1
6 6 Sonofaship 6.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Yockey’s Drivethru 3.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Benji Star 1.80 3.8 7-1
9 9 Duvee 15.00 4 8-1
5 5 Calibrachoa Kid 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.