Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, February 20, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Berlaine 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 It’sfiftyshadetime 8.00 1.3 2-1
10 10 Start Singing 15.00 3.8 7-1
11 11 Trouble Free 12.00 4 8-1
9 9 Im Singled Up 12.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Xcaret 20.00 6 11-1
4 4 Ann’s Storm 20.00 8.3 16-1
12 12 April’s Gem 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Mirth ‘n Merriment 4.50 SCRATCH
2 2 My Lady Slew 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Sweet Sassicaia 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Pasta Salad Rhonda 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Cotton Candy Annie 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Diamonds Joy 3.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Hurricane Lassie 4.50 3.3 6-1
7 7 Sparkle of Hope 3.50 4.6 9-1
3 3 Zoom Erin 4.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Reba Attack 8.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Dixie Morning 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Optional Claiming) – Maiden Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Casilda 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Royal Princess 3.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Mustique 8.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Don’t Come Looking 1.80 4.6 9-1
6 6 Sweet Aunt Rosie 8.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Mighty Risky 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Kevin’s Strike 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Problem Solved 5.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Reverse Merger 4.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 Rachael’s Wagon 15.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Batter Up 8.00 3 6-1
5 5 Mackadoo 6.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Act Your Wage 20.00 5 9-1
4 4 Film At Eleven 20.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 No Soy Borracho 20.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Justawalkinthepark 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Dream Scheme 3.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Wayllen Richard 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Good to Be Prince 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Not Behavin 5.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Grand Academic 3.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Butcher Holler 4.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Friendly Charlie 8.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Mi Compadre 5.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Serenader 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Kenmore West 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Le Monstre Rapide 3.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Native Star 4.00 3 6-1
5 5 Star Byfar 6.00 3 6-1
8 8 Steel Argument 10.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Avery’s Gem 10.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Gem Buoy 10.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Inchhighatahundred 10.00 8.3 16-1
6 6 Razor Crest 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Front and Silver 3.50 1 2-1
13 13 Miss Rosie 4.50 1.2 2-1
7 7 Luminous Flight 5.00 1.4 3-1
10 10 Grace and Mercy 15.00 2 4-1
3 3 Broadway Pearl 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 In B. J.’s Honor 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Back Street Baby 4.50 4.3 8-1
12 12 Chapellete 20.00 5 9-1
5 5 Grace Hazel 12.00 6 11-1
1 1 Walksonwater 12.00 8.6 16-1
11 11 Birdie Call 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Kathlyns Phalanx 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Deroutante 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Hope Mission 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Love Song 6.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Zaghruta 6.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Win for Speight 12.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Rock Harbor 15.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Especially 6.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Martingale 4.50 8.1 15-1
5 5 Conch Fried Rice 12.00 8.4 16-1
1 1 Miss Authentic 6.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Optional Claiming) – Maiden Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Native Runner 0 0-1
7 7 Native Runner 6.00 1 2-1
9 9 Diamond Eyed Jack 4.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Somekinda Mischief 12.00 3 6-1
4 4 Storm the Streets 5.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Mr. Colossal 10.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Tested 5.00 4.4 8-1
12 12 Crooked Bullet 20.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Our Sliceof Heaven 30.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Tyler’s Turn 12.00 7.9 15-1
11 11 El Muheet 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Traitour 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Nothingbutbluesky 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Temple of Peace 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Deal of Faith 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Star Apriority 10.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Computerized 3.50 3 6-1
2 2 Josie’s Priority 12.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Knight’s Gold 12.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Caughtupndamoment 20.00 4 7-1
1 1 Hard Cry 20.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Mister Dennis 4.50 6 11-1
6 6 Me Promesa 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.