Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday, March 4, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Tribest (ARG) 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Tabor Time 4.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Gift Gorgeous 4.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Mally’s Monsoon 5.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Copper Crush 4.50 5.8 11-1
6 6 Talkabout 8.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Run Away Samari 12.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Bikini Bottom 12.00 8.5 16-1
8 8 Blushing Bonnie 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Hardly Able 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Adieu Aces 3.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 Astrologysprotege 8.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Cryptozonic 4.50 7.5 14-1
6 6 Wild Bert 6.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Handsome Harold 8.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Golden Palace 12.00 8.6 16-1
1 1 Father Goose 12.00 8.8 17-1
5 5 Magawildtime 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Kee Jee 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Breaking Star 5.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Little Warrior 3.50 2.2 4-1
8 8 Money Kingdom 3.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Astroneer 20.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Party At Jays 10.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Daddy’s Code 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Catchin Drama 10.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Admiral Afleet 20.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Rebind 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Koufax 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Write Off Jerry 3.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Risk Manager 8.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Warrior Richard 2.50 3 6-1
4 4 Agent Creed 5.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Breaking Alone 8.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Tres Soles 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Midnight Award 20.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Maasai Warrior 15.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Release McCraken 5.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Uxmal 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Carpis 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 The Boss Soss 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Yockey’s Drivethru 3.50 1.1 2-1
4 4 Tambourine Star 4.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Pegaso 8.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Sounds Like Power 4.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Titanium Deal 12.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Summertime Peppers 10.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Chad’s Flashy Ways 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Terra Bella 0 0-1
11 11 Amadora’s Empire 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Always Practical 5.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Good Temper 8.00 3.6 7-1
12 12 Payrula 12.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Midnight Blaze 12.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Terra Bella 4.50 5 10-1
4 4 Carolina Smokeshow 8.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Spun Up 8.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Tizntshelovely 10.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Taco Cat Backwards 8.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Romany Road 15.00 7.1 13-1
13 13 Mad About Marie 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Curls Nite Out 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Discreet Mischief 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Pinfire 3.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Map to the Stars 4.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Risk It 4.50 4.1 8-1
5 5 Saint Peter’s Bay 15.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Augusta Melody 8.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Lucky Romance 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Optical 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Mardi Gras S.) – Mardi Gras S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Accomplished Girl 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Speedy Traveler 3.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Oeuvre 3.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 Cupids Crush 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Big Trouble 6.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Non Violence 20.00 5 9-1
1 1 Huntress for Hire 5.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Gavea (GER) 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 High Adventure 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Deelitesandimsum 4.50 1.6 3-1
10 10 Star Rock Star 3.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Karnes 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Yorktown Panther 8.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Flat Out Fitz 15.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 My Man Brandon 5.00 6.4 12-1
11 11 Sarah’s Runner 12.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Quinnsaltyofficer 15.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Friendly Hint 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Steve’s Trouble 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.