Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, April 6, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Golden Keen 30.00 1 2-1
10 10 Dragon Navy 15.00 1.3 2-1
9 9 Kadabra 3.00 2.1 4-1
12 12 Daphne Blue 1.60 2.4 4-1
11 11 The Little Sultana 20.00 3.4 7-1
5 5 Lennilu 4.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Chambourcin 15.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 La Monarca 30.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Honor and Obay 20.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Baytown Cassina 20.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Givemethebeat 10.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Juno Palace 30.00 5.9 11-1
14 14 Clowning Around 6.00 6 11-1
13 13 Estrella Silver 30.00 6.4 12-1
Lennilu 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Shortstop 3.50 1 2-1
15 15 Freedom Maker 4.00 1.4 3-1
10 10 Catalina Cat 12.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Turnbuckle 20.00 3.8 7-1
11 11 Paved in Gold 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Chachaching 20.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 And Thats My Story 15.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Baobab 2.50 5.8 11-1
3 3 Promissione 15.00 7.7 15-1
2 2 Mr. Chuck 6.00 10.2 19-1
16 16 Money Memolo 20.00 10.3 19-1
9 9 Midnight Survivor 6.00 10.5 20-1
13 13 Cue Country Roads 20.00 11.8 22-1
7 7 Mi Compadre 30.00 12.6 24-1
12 12 Byword 20.00 14.8 28-1
14 14 Task Force 12.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Romantica 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Goats On a Tree 4.50 1.4 3-1
9 9 New Rome 4.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Quietly 10.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Cheyenne Moon 30.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Twirling Good Time 15.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Gal Capone 20.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Expatriate 3.50 6.5 12-1
5 5 Hay Stack 8.00 8.3 16-1
11 11 Heart Spin 20.00 10 19-1
13 13 Sierra Sky 20.00 10.8 20-1
1 1 Three Coins 30.00 10.8 20-1
12 12 Storm Miami (IRE) 8.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Piquant 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Mo Hair Sam 8.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Magnum Force 3.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Art Fair 4.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Up to No Good 20.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 South Bend Tom 20.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Canisius 30.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Farley Hall 15.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Covert Law 10.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Sprint Out Pass 12.00 9.2 17-1
11 11 Jack’s Promise 4.50 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 15 Shiloh’s Mistress 20.00 1 2-1
11 11 Random Harvest 15.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Just Better 12.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Federalism 20.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Segesta 2.00 4.4 8-1
14 14 Sweet Chablis 30.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Waves of Mischief 6.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Buttercream Babe 4.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Belle of Rights 12.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Lady Firefoot 12.00 8.7 16-1
10 10 Chilled 30.00 10.3 19-1
13 13 Broughty Ferry 30.00 10.8 20-1
5 5 Serene Seraph (IRE) 15.00 12.8 24-1
1 1 Miwa (GB) 8.00 14.2 27-1
12 12 Partir (FR) 15.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Paris Lily 10.00 1 2-1
8 8 Ultima Grace 6.00 1.3 2-1
10 10 Chasten 3.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Getting After It 15.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Justinqueso 3.50 5.8 11-1
4 4 Liam in the Dust 4.50 6.4 12-1
5 5 Ruth 15.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Especially 8.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Mad About Marie 20.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 Indeed 8.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lolo Le Plume 15.00 1 2-1
1 1 Heavenly Sunset 4.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Salted 3.00 1.8 3-1
11 11 Ghanaayem 8.00 2 4-1
5 5 Plaza Cue 6.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Tejanita 20.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Miss Authentic 15.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 High Note 8.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Fallon 30.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 In the Stars 15.00 7.9 15-1
12 12 Heartbeat 20.00 8.7 16-1
10 10 Lady Scuderia 6.00 11 21-1
13 13 Protective Custody 15.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Palisades S.) – Palisades S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Dreamaway 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Normandy Coast 20.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Makeit to Cheyenne 4.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Turbulent Force 6.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Warheart 3.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Out On Bail 3.50 6.4 12-1
1 1 Long Neck Paula 10.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Killjoy 20.00 9.2 17-1
7 7 Brie’s in Town 30.00 9.5 18-1
8 8 Absolutely Hot 20.00 11 21-1
11 11 Flat to Da Mat 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Middleground Capital Beaumont S.) – Middleground Capital Beaumont S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Continuity 12.00 1 2-1
5 5 Stunner 3.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Eclatant 1.60 1.4 3-1
6 6 Verity 4.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 G W’s Girl 2.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Volleyballprincess 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Taking Candy 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Deterministic 4.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Strong Quality 3.50 3.4 6-1
12 12 Lagynos 8.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Balnikhov (IRE) 5.00 5.9 11-1
11 11 Swiftsure 15.00 6.4 12-1
14 14 Miranda Rights 15.00 6.6 13-1
9 9 Injunction 12.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Warrior Johny 12.00 9.2 17-1
8 8 Starting Over 15.00 11.4 21-1
4 4 Another Mystery 20.00 11.5 22-1
10 10 Money Supply 20.00 11.5 22-1
5 5 Accredit 30.00 11.8 22-1
13 13 Signator 12.00 14 26-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.