Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, April 13, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Twirling Ridge 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Diblasi 0.80 1.5 3-1
2 2 Ohoopee 3.50 2 4-1
6 6 Il Sorpasso 30.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Baytown Triobloidi 20.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Talmadge 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Baytown Wonder 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Mr. Vaggio 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Aerate 10.00 1 2-1
11 11 Stormproof 3.50 1.7 3-1
9 9 Captain Fancy 12.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Heavy Hitter 6.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Lean Music Machine 1.60 3.5 7-1
10 10 Memphis Slim 15.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Jack Rabbit 20.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Bet On Bret 30.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Skyler 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Raising Kane 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 How’ya Getting On 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Dublin’s Knight (IRE) 0 0-1
9 9 Dublin’s Knight (IRE) 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Proudly Hailed (GB) 8.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Global Prosperity 20.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Hard Circle 12.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Borrowed Time 20.00 5 9-1
10 10 Salamis 4.00 5.2 10-1
12 12 Plensa 6.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 World Beater 10.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Speedini 30.00 9.1 17-1
7 7 Esmark 15.00 10.6 20-1
2 2 Rock It 12.00 10.9 21-1
5 5 Nomolimbo 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Roll On Big Joe 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Otto the Conqueror 4.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Top Gunner 0.80 2.5 5-1
3 3 Nova Rags 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Simcoe 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 El Magnifico 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Secured Lender 4.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 Holster 6.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Private Reserve 4.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Ghost Nation 20.00 4 7-1
2 2 Venik 5.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Beechmont 20.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 King of Gotham 20.00 6 11-1
9 9 Name It 8.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Spielman 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Moon Channel 0 0-1
3 3 Lebowski 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Thirteen Colonies 4.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 A Bourbon for Toby 15.00 3.3 6-1
12 12 Brushfire 10.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Dr. Niko 20.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Executive 3.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Mighty Mike 20.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Zun Reyder 30.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Anew 4.50 7.2 14-1
9 9 Moon Channel 8.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Big Ritz 15.00 8.6 16-1
11 11 Money Man 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Impel 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Into Champagne 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 Paynt Ya Later 20.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Easy Red 8.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Miss Enchanted 20.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Sing a Little Song 30.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Caumsett 20.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Marmalade Skye 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Lotsandlotsofcandy 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Pleasant Embrace 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Giant’s Causeway S.) – Giant’s Causeway S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Awesome Treat 0 0-1
4 4 Future Is Now 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Toupie 3.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 Danse Macabre 8.00 2.9 6-1
10 10 Just a Care (IRE) 4.50 3.6 7-1
3 3 Lithe Spirit 10.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Pandora’s Gift (IRE) 6.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Awesome Treat 30.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Accomplished Girl 20.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Get Twisted 30.00 6 11-1
1 1 B G Warrior 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Livehappy 15.00 1 2-1
8 8 Big Salt Lick 5.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Maravich 12.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Hotline Blink 15.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Storm the Streets 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Romantic Lead 3.00 4 7-1
9 9 Hen Hen 15.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Soco and Lime 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Parade of Fears 4.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 Beck’s Spirit 10.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Bourbon Street Boy 8.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Desert Aire 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.