Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Satisfied Mind 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Evolution 4.50 2 4-1
9 9 Daring Move 6.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Purely Zen 12.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Backgammon 12.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Nanzig 20.00 7.5 14-1
11 11 Cheekwood 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Mescool 30.00 11 21-1
8 8 Little Sam’s 30.00 11 21-1
1 1 Vibora 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Frosty Mojito 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Casilda 1.50 1 2-1
14 14 What’s Her Number 4.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Big Earn 4.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Menu Please (IRE) 6.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Violences Ohr 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Miss Monroe County 12.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Fifth of May 12.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Red Royalty 12.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Tip Tap 15.00 8.1 15-1
11 11 Truthorconsequence 20.00 10.7 20-1
4 4 Wreck It Ruby 30.00 16 30-1
15 15 Leilauni Sue 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Tempting Lady 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Viley Lane 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Lady Blake 30.00 16 30-1
16 16 Wicked Eyes 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Slip Mahoney 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Baba Voss 4.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Gilmore 4.50 2 4-1
7 7 Coppermaster 15.00 6.1 11-1
3 3 Release McCraken 2.00 SCRATCH
1 1 I’m Your Man 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Guanare 20.00 8 15-1
6 6 Manfredi 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Double Barrel 1.40 1 2-1
11 11 Panthor 4.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Dewy’s Beast 6.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Coach Campbell 8.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Oddsontony 10.00 4 8-1
1 1 God of Wine 12.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Cause a Ruckus 12.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Candyland Phil 20.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Criminal Defense 30.00 11 21-1
2 2 One for My Brother 30.00 11 21-1
5 5 Oscarsson 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Practical Lov 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Candy Mine 4.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Software 5.00 1.9 3-1
10 10 Magic Escapade 6.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Bundchen 6.00 2.4 5-1
13 13 Maclean’s Lullaby 6.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Fozzer 12.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Maurya 15.00 7.5 14-1
12 12 Moringa 20.00 10.3 20-1
11 11 Emoji 20.00 10.3 20-1
4 4 Dear Scarlett 30.00 16 30-1
9 9 Loriebeth 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Grey Matter 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Salty Senorita 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Blackjack Mary 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Izzy Sweet Girl (IRE) 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Augusta Melody 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Darioush 3.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Justifreak 4.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Tivy 4.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Jimmy Rules 6.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Summonyourcourage 10.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Great Richie M 12.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Trust Issues 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Saturday Flirt 3.50 1 2-1
12 12 Big Trouble 4.50 1.3 2-1
1 1 Satin Blue 5.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Elegant 6.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Tales of The Heart (IRE) 6.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Dala 8.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Latin Fever (IRE) 8.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 La Foret 15.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Unhidden Gem (IRE) 15.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Cotillard 30.00 9.6 18-1
6 6 Sweet Bebsi 30.00 9.6 18-1
10 10 Dream On Stormy 50.00 16 30-1
13 13 Caberneigh 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Bonne Fille 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Stellar Asset 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 La Marinera 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Theresasilverlinin 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 We’ll Do It Live 3.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Princess Is Olivia 4.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Sally’s Suprise 6.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Could Be a Cougar 12.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Very Wealthy 20.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Frango Electrico 20.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 Talkin in Cursive 20.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Lucky Phoenix 30.00 11 21-1
3 3 Beau Soleil 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Sandrinha Love 30.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.