Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, April 23, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sight to See 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Helen’s Little Sis 3.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Colonial Rose 2.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Pula 4.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 No Pardon 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 A Dollar a Day 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Kontiki 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Gracie’s Delight 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Percy’s Bar 5.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Nonna’s Love 4.50 1.7 3-1
12 12 Chiquita’s Way 20.00 2 4-1
8 8 Cat Island 8.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Fetchmydiamonds 10.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 In the Aggregate 30.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Midnight Eve 30.00 3.9 7-1
15 15 Super Pachi 30.00 4.1 8-1
13 13 Givemethebeat 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Stardialed 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Flaming Mama 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Valiant War Girl 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Baytown Cassina 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Celestial Harmony 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Spurgeon 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Alpha Omega 4.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Shogun 3.50 2.9 5-1
3 3 Midnight Survivor 10.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Strategic Force 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Missile Cruiser 15.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Chachaching 6.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Special Awakening 8.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Hard Spun to Run 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Early Adopter (GB) 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Bulldoze 5.00 2.3 4-1
12 12 Hot Property 4.50 2.7 5-1
4 4 King of Ashes 10.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Boy Boy 30.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Anegada 20.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Attack 8.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Earned Not Given 6.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Desperate Proposal 15.00 6.2 12-1
13 13 Capitol Hill 3.50 7.8 15-1
2 2 Coiled 10.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 Amy’s Music 30.00 8.9 17-1
16 16 Tepeyac 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Concord Green 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Lazlo 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 McIlroy 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sharp Swinger 1.60 1 2-1
1 1 Corman 8.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Complex Music 4.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Rulookinforrayray 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Charbonnay 20.00 4 8-1
2 2 Run of the House 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Big Lambros 6.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Take Five Charlie 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Romantica 6.00 1 2-1
9 9 Faith Understood 10.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Tarneema 2.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Parish Lane 4.00 3.5 7-1
11 11 Whappen 15.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Purloin 20.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Sugaree (IRE) 6.00 5 9-1
8 8 Cha Cha Chukka 20.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Missy Bee 15.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Sacred Image 30.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Saccharine 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Little Jamie 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Landed 2.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Chilled 3.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Pulp Fiction (ARG) 4.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Cat’s Cave 5.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Musical Note 20.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Indy Label 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Just So Pretty 1.60 1 2-1
11 11 Love Song 15.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Athaliah 8.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Indy’s Halo 5.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 Alittlebitnaughty 20.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Spinning Class 10.00 3.2 6-1
12 12 Lady Meis (IRE) 10.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Zappera 50.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Mildred Pierce 10.00 12.7 24-1
14 14 Halstyn Rose 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Kimber Spice 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 High Shot 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Celebrity Ro 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Glamorama 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Take Note of This 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Swift Tease 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.