Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Harvard 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Business Model 2.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Twirling Troillet 8.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Nikolaou 3.50 4.5 9-1
5 5 Show Time 6.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Couperin 15.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Paynter’s Canvas 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Union Dame 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Readytoriskitall 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Sweet Sib 6.00 2.2 4-1
11 11 Genuine Article 8.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Miss Collected 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Red Royalty 8.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Judy’s Flyer 8.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Hand It Over 20.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Bouji Is a Word 30.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Night Cry 30.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Beto’s Birdie 30.00 8.2 16-1
10 10 Coolness 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Rivalry 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Gold Search 4.50 3 6-1
3 3 Son of a Gray 15.00 4.5 8-1
10 10 More Than Five 5.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Merlotti 15.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Quebrancho 15.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Dancing Noah 20.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Spoonie 2.50 5.4 10-1
5 5 Beer With Ice 15.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Sackett 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Raguel 4.50 1 2-1
13 13 Smart Mo 3.00 5 10-1
1 1 Full Armor 5.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 House United 5.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Warrior Wayne 8.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Chris’s Revenge 6.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Consecrated 6.00 7.7 15-1
7 7 Sprint Out Pass 8.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Devil Anse 20.00 11.6 22-1
11 11 Indy Magic 3.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Cabernaydo 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Funnyflame 3.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Kistler 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Rachman 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Up On the Edge 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Yes to Champagne 6.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Starcourt 8.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Red Wine Lady 20.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Fun to Run 4.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Starlit Sofi 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 United Forever 8.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Lady Riley 15.00 6.8 13-1
12 12 Hearts United 12.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 Sweet Lilibet 30.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Ladle 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Krickle 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 She Stopped Short 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Didn’t It Rain 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Pure Breeze 4.50 1.1 2-1
7 7 Martingale 2.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Pour a Little More 6.00 1.9 3-1
9 9 Well Aware 3.50 2.4 4-1
1 1 Closing Prayer 15.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Ocean Ripple 5.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 My Sexy Blonde 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Chandon 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 G T Five Hundred 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Risk It 5.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Lil Muggs 15.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Rocketeer 4.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Fort Sam 15.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Lou’s Legacy 20.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Pentathlon 5.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 March of Time 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 West Hollywood 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Out of Deductions 5.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Miranda Rights 5.00 2 4-1
3 3 Tapit Shoes 8.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Higgins Boat 3.50 3.1 6-1
11 11 In a Jam 8.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Call Protection 10.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Tall Boy 12.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Native Shaman 12.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Event Detail 12.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Timeout 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Maravich 12.00 1 2-1
9 9 Catalina Cat 3.00 2 4-1
4 4 High Five Sy 6.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Promissione 8.00 3.5 7-1
14 14 Trap Line 20.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Desert Aire 4.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Ghost Prince 20.00 7 13-1
2 2 Hotline Blink 6.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Bourbon State 15.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 Jack Rabbit 20.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 Dan d’Oro 8.00 9.2 17-1
16 16 Playing Cupid 8.00 9.3 18-1
7 7 Egyptian Quest 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Mubarez 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Bourbon Street Boy 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Purdy Darn Good 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.