Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cromwell | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sturdy | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Coffee Talk | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bourbon Society | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Chillax | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fountain Lake | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kicking Clear | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Sansone | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Knicks Gate | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Banded Humor | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Knicks Code | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Money Man | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Normandy Queen | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Don’t Bring Crazy | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Generous Lover | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Desert Rhapsody | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lemon Muffin | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Home Game | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Secret Statement | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Izzy’s Monster | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Barbratina | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tapit Quick | 5.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Grace On Grace | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Tiz Secure | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hypnus | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rapture | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Goal Oriented | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sorcerer’s Silver | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bracket Buster | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Valentinian | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Yinzer | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Racing Driver | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vamos Carlitos | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Strummin | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Knicks Go Overnight S. Presented By L&n Federal Credit Union) – Knicks Go Overnight S. Presented By L&n Federal Credit Union
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Kupuna | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Accretive | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Liberal Arts | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Osbourne | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Castle Chaos | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Best Actor | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Patriot Spirit | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | New King | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Inveigled | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ashcroft | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Quality Chic | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Chiron | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Implementation | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Keen Cat | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.) – Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sacred Wish | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tax Implications (GB) | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Five Towns (GB) | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Movin’ On Up | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Venencia (FR) | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pin Up Betty | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Simply in Front | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Serene Seraph (IRE) | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Poolside With Slim (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Special Wan (IRE) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Sap) – Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Sap
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Gaming | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Madaket Road | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Built | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Smoken Wicked | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gate to Wire | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Macho Music | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Innovator | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | California Burrito | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Perfect Force | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Accenture) – Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Accenture
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Boss Sully | 15.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rogue Lightning (IRE) | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Unconquerable Keen (IRE) | 30.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Coppola | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Arrest Me Red | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Run Carson | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Eamonn | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Think Big | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mischievous Rogue | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ambivalent | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | One Timer | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Nobals | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Churchill Downs S. Presented By Ford) – Churchill Downs S. Presented By Ford
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Giant Mischief | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Banishing | 5.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Mullikin | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Book’em Danno | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Nysos | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tejano Twist | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Extra Anejo | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mindframe | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hoist the Gold | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Here Mi Song | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Just Steel | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (American Turf S. Presented By Ford) – American Turf S. Presented By Ford
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Iron Man Cal | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Zulu Kingdom (IRE) | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Scipio | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Test Score | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Golden Afternoon | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mi Bago | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | New Century (GB) | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Giocoso | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Maximum Promise | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Maui Strong | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Hammerhead | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Warlander | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Megalodon | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Classic of Course | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 18 | 18 | Discreet Dancer | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Spirit Rags | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Charlie’s to Blame | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | A. P. Kid | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Kendall-jackson Winery) – Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Kendall-jackson Winery
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Emery | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Vahva | 6.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Hope Road | 15.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Scylla | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ways and Means | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mystic Lake | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kopion | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Benedetta | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Positano Sunset | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Miss Susan B | 30.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Awesome Treat | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Taxed | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Dorth Vader | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | My Mane Squeeze | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Grand Job | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Haulin Ice | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.) – Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Gold Phoenix (IRE) | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Spirit of St Louis | 4.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Redistricting (GB) | 10.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Taking Candy | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Integration | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Running Bee | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Gigante | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Highway Robber | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mercante | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cameo Performance | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Idratherbeblessed | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Brilliant Berti | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve) – Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Journalism | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 21 | 21 | Baeza | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Citizen Bull | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 17 | 17 | Sandman | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | East Avenue | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 20 | 20 | Owen Almighty | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Publisher | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 18 | 18 | Sovereignty | 5.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Tiztastic | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Luxor Cafe | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Admire Daytona (JPN) | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 19 | 19 | Chunk of Gold | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Burnham Square | 12.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Render Judgment | 30.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Final Gambit | 30.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Neoequos | 30.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Coal Battle | 30.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | American Promise | 30.00 | 14.1 | 27-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Flying Mohawk | 30.00 | 14.1 | 27-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Grande | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Rodriguez | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 13 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Patch Adams | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Romanesque | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Big Truzz | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Furio | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Multiverse | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Joejoe Go | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jack’s Promise | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Fully Volatile | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Optical | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shan | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dapper Moon | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Classic Time | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Tiny Lake | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Touchy | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Terrapin Station | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Haunted Flame | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 14 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Lambo | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Mainstream | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Harbe | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Advanced Spirit | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Excite | 12.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Pursuitneversleeps | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Shallus | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bon Temps | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Send Coins | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pediatrician | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blistering | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Delta Tau Chi | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Arthur Jr | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Into Thin Air | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.