Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 8, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sweet Chablis 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Wits and Wagers 3.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Argan 10.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Jackie’s Love 15.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Storm Bay 5.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Differently 10.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Miss Peabody 4.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Midnight Blaze 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Gorrono Ranch 1.60 1 2-1
10 10 Chambourcin 3.50 3.1 6-1
5 5 Woodall Pass 15.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Cheekwood 8.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 She’s Mad 12.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Engagement 10.00 6 11-1
7 7 Soundsmischievous 10.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Caroom’s Croupier 15.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Ojos Locos 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Nonstop Vino 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sole Lute 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 La Houligan 2.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Sixtyseven Mustang 3.50 3.9 7-1
5 5 Lebombo 4.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Free Spin 5.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Start Mo Up 15.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Pyromania 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Guy Smiley 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Fling Ready 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Stormtown 12.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Restore (FR) 2.50 4.4 8-1
6 6 Modus Bestia 3.50 4.7 9-1
7 7 Math Tutor 15.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Blast Furnace 15.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Nyttime Story 20.00 6 11-1
1 1 Our Starry Night 8.00 8.3 16-1
10 10 Southern Bullet 20.00 11.3 21-1
13 13 Military Cruiser 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Initialize 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Castle Run 5.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Call Shadd 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Don Corleone 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Berniedott 4.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Livehappy 15.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Geno’s Myth 3.50 5.9 11-1
1 1 Genuine Star 4.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Le Chiffre 12.00 7.7 15-1
6 6 Pierce Elevated 10.00 8 15-1
5 5 Penei 15.00 8.2 16-1
7 7 Its Paladin Time 15.00 9.7 18-1
2 2 Spy 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bermuda Blitz 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Suited and Booted 3.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Art Fair 3.00 2 4-1
10 10 Forty Love 8.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Haunted Flame 15.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Charbonnay 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Magic Mover 20.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Our Favorite Son 4.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Aero Star 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Purse Thief 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Double Velocity 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Hereforagoodtime 3.50 1.4 3-1
9 9 Love and Poetry 5.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Sherbini 4.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Scattitude 6.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Birkin Girl 12.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Knightofcaravaggio 20.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Poema 5.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Annelle 10.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Taco Cat Backwards 30.00 5.8 11-1
12 12 Lady Orient 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Eunomia 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Serendipity 3.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Never Really Know (IRE) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Will Not Be Swayed 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Always Practical 20.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Flash Wear 20.00 2 4-1
10 10 Royal Princess 12.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Gerlin’s Empire 3.50 2.6 5-1
12 12 Austin High 4.00 3 6-1
11 11 Princess Ny 8.00 3 6-1
2 2 Tiger Division 10.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Madeline’s Promise 6.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Carolina Smokeshow 12.00 3.9 7-1
13 13 Spotaway 12.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Mom’s Cheesecake 30.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Mezcalifornia 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.