Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 9, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 What’s Her Number 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 She’s No Angel 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Crank It Up 3.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Mustique 10.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Walk Street 8.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Whiskey Brew 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Happy Prince 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 All Honors 4.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Trevally 6.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Golden Keen 15.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Shake and Rattle 6.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Longstrider 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Fistfulofmoney 15.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Chalky White 3.50 4.6 9-1
5 5 Kid Twist 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Initialize 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Castle Run 3.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Borrowed Time 10.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Zapping Strike 6.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Outofpi 12.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Ink Lies 5.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Love That Symphony 20.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 E Lion 3.50 4.5 8-1
5 5 Military Cruiser 15.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 Fireblade 15.00 8.3 16-1
14 14 Frankie’s Boy 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Edifice 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Atomic Snow 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Cortina (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 El Magnifico 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Django 3.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Riddle Solver 5.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Brave Blend 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Honest Al 5.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Next Level 4.50 4.7 9-1
5 5 One Mor Story 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Acknowledge 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Reverse Merger 3.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Conquering Cat 3.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Purse Thief 6.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Derek’s Law 10.00 4 8-1
2 2 Greatdayforhockey 10.00 4 8-1
1 1 Crooked Bullet 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Sonic Skidaddle 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 I’m Mo Joke 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Mae Town 4.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Murphy Girl 12.00 3 6-1
3 3 Reya Sunshine 12.00 3 6-1
5 5 Girls Rock 6.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Good Going 10.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Sang 15.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Salty Senorita 6.00 7 13-1
13 13 Moonlight Dash 4.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Texas Queen 8.00 7.7 15-1
4 4 Candy Mine 3.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Grey Matter 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Sycamore Shoals 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Flirty Girl 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Warrior Richard 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Great Escape 15.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Glen Airy 4.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Lure Him In 3.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Tres Soles 5.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Trident Hit 6.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Bernin Hot 6.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 American Blaze 20.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Master Game 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tomasello 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Enterdadragon 3.00 3 6-1
1 1 McIlroy 4.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Emergence 4.50 4.3 8-1
3 3 Blue Coast 12.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Discreet Dancer 5.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Thermoscat 15.00 5 9-1
9 9 Mika 15.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Solid Left 12.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Native Runner 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Lazlo 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bow to Clara 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Dark Fury 6.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Nursekringledances 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Casilda 3.50 4.9 9-1
9 9 Mad About Marie 3.00 5 9-1
1 1 Rando 15.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Animal Fries 5.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 Tizntshelovely 10.00 9 17-1
7 7 Go Town 15.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.