Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 10, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 She’s So Shiny 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Savannamarie 1.80 2.4 4-1
3 3 Laserjet 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Gray Frost 2.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Q Bond 20.00 5 9-1
7 7 Calisue 6.00 6 11-1
6 6 Pittore d’Oro 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Zeca Diabo 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Oneofthegoodguys 12.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Graydaria 4.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Air of Defiance 3.50 3.6 7-1
5 5 Goldentown 3.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Kistler 6.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Noble Gentleman 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tiverton (GB) 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Sutherland 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Manabi 2.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 Chryso Alogo 10.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 God of Wine 4.50 6 11-1
3 3 One for My Brother 10.00 6 11-1
7 7 Not Normal 3.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Beau Soleil 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Problematica 8.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Awesome Annmarie 2.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Self Isolation 3.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Miss Jeopardy 4.50 4.6 9-1
3 3 Frango Electrico 20.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Never Sway 4.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Protomagic 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 15 Caviar Breakfast 15.00 1 2-1
3 3 Lotus Petal 20.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Gum 3.50 4.8 9-1
8 8 Straight Forward 12.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Bea Trix 12.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 In the Stars 12.00 6.9 13-1
12 12 Time Stone 3.00 7.1 13-1
13 13 Tempting Eve 4.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Big Air 10.00 8 15-1
10 10 Wedding Mood (IRE) 2.50 8.1 15-1
4 4 Sheila’s Lion 20.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Olympic Dame 10.00 8.9 17-1
14 14 Tap the Champagne 15.00 14 26-1
7 7 Swift Tease 30.00 15.6 29-1
11 11 B D’s Angel 30.00 15.8 30-1
16 16 Something Stronger 10.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Mr Puk 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Appeal Denied 5.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Peruvian Lucky 12.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Critical Threat 4.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 Khozy My Boy 12.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Easy Operator 30.00 7.7 14-1
2 2 Crosstown Shootout 10.00 8.3 16-1
7 7 Huntertown 20.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Ready Pursuit 30.00 9 17-1
8 8 Junior Bug 6.00 9.7 18-1
12 12 Kant Beat the Rock 4.50 10.4 20-1
11 11 Improbable Story 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Batter Up 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Venik 8.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Tiz My Hero 4.50 4.4 8-1
2 2 Farm Team 15.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Over Proof 10.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Ped d’Oro 6.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Pace Yourself 15.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Bo Bo Dough 12.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 Romantic Lead 15.00 6.6 13-1
3 3 Raising Kane 10.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Abbi Fede 5.00 7.7 15-1
12 12 Levitating 6.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 St. Armands Key 4.00 1 2-1
15 15 Grand Aspen 6.00 1.4 3-1
8 8 American Hope 4.50 3 6-1
2 2 Johny’s Fireball 6.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Oscar Season 6.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Factor Analysis 12.00 6 11-1
3 3 Corruption 3.50 6.6 13-1
12 12 Fuerteventura 12.00 8.1 15-1
11 11 English Chunnel 12.00 8.5 16-1
9 9 Quatrocento 15.00 9 17-1
6 6 Clyde’s Got a Gun 20.00 9.2 17-1
10 10 Zverev 10.00 11.2 21-1
16 16 Tough Little Nut 10.00 11.3 21-1
7 7 Happy Happy Day (ARG) 30.00 11.7 22-1
13 13 Moogie Son 20.00 14.4 27-1
14 14 Lips Say Bliss 12.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Orizzonte 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Welaka 2.50 3.3 6-1
8 8 McIlroy 3.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Gun Party 3.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Real Men Violin 6.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Accident 15.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Itsinmyblood 15.00 7 13-1
6 6 Mugatu 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Mamzelle S.) – Mamzelle S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Mechaya 15.00 1 2-1
9 9 Shisospicy 2.50 1.1 2-1
6 6 Dreamaway 6.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 It Ain’t Two (GB) 10.00 2.7 5-1
10 10 Bonne Fille 20.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Mighty Eriu (IRE) 15.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Kilwin 8.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Laurice 20.00 8 15-1
3 3 Abientot 5.00 9.8 18-1
11 11 Serving Time (GB) 10.00 10.4 20-1
12 12 Civetta 8.00 12.6 24-1
7 7 Bunratty Manor (IRE) 20.00 12.9 24-1
13 13 Lovely Emma 8.00 13 25-1
17 17 Hey Bertie 8.00 14.4 27-1
14 14 Me Governor 12.00 15.2 29-1
15 15 Stay Classy 20.00 15.5 29-1
16 16 Anakarina 20.00 17 32-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Velociraptor 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Keeping the Faith 6.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Mister Banderas 8.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Redacted 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Lottery Win 8.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Pop Paul 20.00 4 8-1
9 9 Tap Me a Song 12.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Dixie Devil 12.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 More Than Prada 15.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Mo Work 8.00 6.8 13-1
11 11 Vix 10.00 9.5 18-1
12 12 Good Mojo 15.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.