Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 15, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Where’s the Wine 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Spirit Rules 2.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Ask Amanda 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Princess Pom Pom 3.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Balladry 3.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Itsablingthing 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Nanzig 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Swiftliketaylor 8.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Americathegreat 3.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Shez Twisted 2.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Chiquita’s Way 20.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Color Comin’ In 4.50 4.8 9-1
7 7 Mi Amiga 5.00 5 9-1
5 5 Rather Late 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Sycamore Shoals 3.50 1 2-1
12 12 Something Stronger 6.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Debt Free 4.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Boujee Beach 10.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Running Game 12.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 She Wants War 6.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Party Pauline 12.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Lucy McGee 30.00 8.4 16-1
9 9 Divine Wind 15.00 8.4 16-1
11 11 Forbidden Friend 30.00 9.3 18-1
2 2 Claire’s Run 5.00 9.9 19-1
8 8 Grey Matter 10.00 10.8 20-1
13 13 Maerdama 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Stage Presence 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Maclean’s Lullaby 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Spinning Glory 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Intermittent Fast 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Carolina Candy 6.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Up the Creek 3.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Sweet Scorecard 5.00 5 9-1
5 5 No What Ifs 8.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Tennesseehoneybee 12.00 6.6 13-1
2 2 I Am Beautiful 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Paved in Gold 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Midnight Survivor 3.50 1.9 4-1
5 5 Rocket Night 6.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Baobab 4.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Winning Song 5.00 3 6-1
2 2 Winegold 8.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Kevin’s Strike 12.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Ghost Prince 30.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Strategist 15.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Thracian 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Pharoah’s Heart 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Liuzza 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 East Shore 10.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Pens Street 3.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Story Hour 12.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Tiffany Twist 8.00 6 11-1
5 5 Bette Davis 10.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Cora’s Legacy 20.00 8.9 17-1
1 1 Klimt’s Muse 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Perfect Figure 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Elegant 5.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Satin Blue 5.00 1.1 2-1
10 10 Blackfoot Daisy 4.50 3.5 7-1
3 3 Rojo Rita 4.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Promisemeanempire 20.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Unhidden Gem (IRE) 15.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Atomic City 15.00 6.9 13-1
12 12 Pondering 8.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 Cotillard 30.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Stellar Asset 10.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Laurie’s Secret 30.00 9.9 19-1
16 16 Obstreperous 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Myiyla 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 La Foret 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Bonne Fille 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Delta Tau Chi 4.50 1 2-1
10 10 Nyquist Frequency 5.00 1.6 3-1
12 12 Tapakena 3.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Shadow Coast 4.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Show Master 15.00 3 6-1
9 9 Gallo de Fuego 12.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Lost in the Sauce 8.00 4.3 8-1
13 13 Mo Jackson 10.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Ambridge 15.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Nash Potatoes 30.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Electioneering 15.00 9.7 18-1
14 14 Personal Jet 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Weekend Reveille 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Helm Place 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.