Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 16, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Rockaway Reef 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Scythia 3.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Motown Honey 4.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Dancing Eyes 5.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Swift Kelce 12.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Explosive Whisper 8.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Theprincessfactor 6.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Employeeofthemonth 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Fourfiftyseven 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 I Had That One Too 3.50 1.4 3-1
4 4 Asian Matriarch 6.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Ladan 5.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Queen of Salsa 4.50 5.5 10-1
7 7 Tavria 5.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Curls Nite Out 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Santos Dumont 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Favorite Outlaw 1.80 1.9 4-1
3 3 Eastside Cool 6.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Dazzlemesilver 15.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Refuah 4.50 5.5 10-1
4 4 Miacomet 15.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Outlier 4.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Twirling Troillet 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Southern Sunset 4.00 2.4 4-1
8 8 Sant’ Antimo 3.50 2.6 5-1
9 9 Liam the Brave 10.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 W W Crazy 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Paynter’s Canvas 12.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Improbable Story 12.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Ready to Roll 12.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Synthesis 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Love Pack 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Stradivarian 8.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Flicker (GB) 20.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Farley Hall 4.50 2.9 6-1
1 1 High Enough 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Wicked Melody 4.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Keeno 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Dancing Noah 20.00 5.6 10-1
9 9 Stormin Love 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Right Spot 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Top Gunner 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Roll On Big Joe 3.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Otto the Conqueror 6.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Tejano Twist 1.80 3.8 7-1
4 4 Durante 15.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Caramel Chip 10.00 7 13-1
6 6 Gold Luck 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Committee of One 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Northern Chill 5.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Uncle William 15.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Protege 8.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Turn Up the Trees 2.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Morunning 15.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Express Line 20.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Baytown Bruiser 20.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Backtrack 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Alexis Zorba (GB) 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Go Captain 3.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 After Taxes (IRE) 8.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Troubleshooting 3.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Hit That Review (IRE) 4.50 4.9 9-1
3 3 Town Barber 15.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Zartownis 15.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Moon Sniper 30.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Elegant Trip 10.00 7.6 14-1
14 14 Side Eye 8.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 The Warden 30.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Stashu 30.00 8.7 16-1
12 12 Rowdy Riot 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Mischief River 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Seven Taylors 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Helm Place 8.00 4 8-1
2 2 Development Fee 2.50 6.2 12-1
11 11 Stormy Passage 8.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Tom Cat Tuesday 6.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Colonel Caliente 8.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Penei 20.00 8.2 15-1
5 5 Personal Jet 6.00 8.5 16-1
8 8 Old Trace 20.00 9.8 18-1
7 7 Article 15.00 9.8 19-1
3 3 Trojan Pride 20.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.