Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Miso Spicy (FR) | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Brooklynn Drew | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lamorna | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | La Foret | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Obstreperous | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Thankfully | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mean Eileen | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Antique Silver | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Cavatelli | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Modern Sound | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | I’m a Cookie Lover | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Susan B | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bundchen | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Nastinate | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Big Salt Lick | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Moving to Kentucky | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Phenomenal Dream | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon Street Boy | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bote | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Silent Breeze | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beck’s Spirit | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pyromania | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rosenow | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Zohere | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Starlit Sofi | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Champagne On Ice | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | My Bossy Lady | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Adrian | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hearts United | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Divine | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Airforce Lightning | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Frosted Miracle | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Shefflin | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Goodasiwonswas | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shape Note | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | M B’s Munning | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Big Effect | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Willtorun | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Top Gun Tommy | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hesper | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lou’s Legacy | 15.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Holster | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pineland | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bourbon’s Fault | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Strummin | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Frosty Indulgence | 2.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ajaayb | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Spanish Eyes (GER) | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Parish Lane | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sy B | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Quietly | 10.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Missy Bee | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Precious Medley | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Freak City | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Vino Tiempo | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Eunomia | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Poppy the Princess | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sister Carlie | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Purring | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Sarah’s Dream | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Norwich | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Candy Nun | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Redemption Time | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Evening News | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mucho Mojo | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Schifty’s Haloid | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Coach Campbell | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cascade Cruiser | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fever Night | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Freedom Maker | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Where Y’at | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Come to Papa | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shogun | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Cinister Cix | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Chachaching | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Johnson | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Abbi Fede | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | C Mac Da Boss | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Louisville S.) – Louisville S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Sugoi | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Missed the Cut | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Idratherbeblessed | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tapit Shoes | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Utah Beach | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Verstappen | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rebel Red (GB) | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rock’n a Halo | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Accredit | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Baddest Good Boy | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gould’s Gold | 5.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Willy D’s | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mena | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Parchment Party | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bullard | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Single Dot Yaht | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | National Eclipse | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Resolve | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Me and Molly McGee | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Spun Candy | 12.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lemon Zest | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Island Barbie | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Temperate | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | High South | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Girl’s Not Grey | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lindy Can | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Cliffs | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Shesa Cherry | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Putonahappyface | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Lady Scuderia | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Kelly’s Way Back | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.