Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, May 18, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ethereal Road 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Swiss Slang 2.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Hoodlum 12.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Tiger Moon 3.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Papa Yo 5.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Big Paper 10.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Master Game 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Fifth of May 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Red Royalty 6.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Tip Tap 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 My Sexy Blonde 15.00 4 8-1
3 3 Union Dame 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Sweet Sib 8.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Judy’s Flyer 5.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Malice Mama 15.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Tiz Salty 20.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Pure Breeze 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Winters Lion 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Dai Vernon 2.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Realignment 4.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Special Dispatch 6.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Mo Hope 6.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Neon Nights 10.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Kigali 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Big Hat Willie 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Can’t Hush This 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Chasing Time 2.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Swift as I Am 10.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Gunner Bay 6.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Hocus 12.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Sinner’s Sin 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Systemic Change 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Gilmore 3.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Keen Cat 1.60 1.9 3-1
1 1 American Law 4.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 Shipman 20.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Dance Some Mo 15.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Greers Ferry 30.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Eddie M 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Gardiner 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Complex Music 3.50 3 6-1
4 4 Shan 8.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Gettinby 4.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 Mo Hair Sam 5.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Megastar 20.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Putting Eagle 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Charbonnay 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sultry Lass 15.00 1 2-1
3 3 Sudden Switch 2.50 1.2 2-1
4 4 Amber Cascade 4.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Ayra Stark (ARG) 10.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Impel 3.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Indy Label 12.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Windy Walk 3.50 7.6 14-1
7 7 Ba Dee Yah 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 My Boy Tony 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 Navy Seal (IRE) 4.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Tickled Quist 4.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Presider 8.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Askari 15.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Mount Rundle 15.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Fort Thomas 12.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Warning Signs 20.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Thick as Thieves 15.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Steadfast Resolve 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Valiant Humor 4.00 1 2-1
14 14 Bob’s Carrot 5.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Camp Hale 3.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Evan On Earth 4.50 4.2 8-1
5 5 Preposition 15.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Ship Ship Hooray 6.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Reaction 8.00 6.5 12-1
12 12 Taylor’s Version 12.00 8.6 16-1
13 13 Shallus 20.00 8.8 17-1
10 10 Nu What’s New 10.00 9.1 17-1
3 3 High Water 20.00 9.9 19-1
9 9 Liam’s Lagoon 15.00 10 19-1
15 15 White Whale 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Studeny 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Fly Guy Mick 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Vex 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.