Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 24, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sweet Seraphine 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Contorted 8.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Shewontbudge 3.50 1.9 3-1
2 2 Joyous Song 2.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Cyawouldntwanabeya 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Speed Shopper 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Not This Gal 10.00 7 13-1
8 8 Field Song 6.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Autumn Chill 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Tonalite 2.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Readytoriskitall 5.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Martingale 1.80 SCRATCH
5 5 Wild Acclaim 20.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Cheyenne Moon 15.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 What If 15.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Fasta Lavista Baby 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sinister Smile 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Homer’s Odyssey 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Master Controller 8.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Studeny 3.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Steel Venom 6.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Vex 5.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Esh 12.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Game Runner 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 These Apples 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Off Ramp 3.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Edistrudis 5.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Demi 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Sassy and Bold 6.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Greek Heiress 4.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Frango Electrico 20.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Abitibi 20.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Never Sway 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 One Timer 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Nobals 2.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Shards 4.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Clear the Air 3.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Double Clutch 8.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Chiseler 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Purple and Gold 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Stage Presence 4.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Foolish Front Fifi 4.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 American Select 12.00 4 8-1
5 5 Buckeye Bombshell 10.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Sarriette 10.00 5 9-1
4 4 Sunset Lines 8.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Timbo’s Mischief 12.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Didn’t It Rain 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Modo 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Unwavering Trust 2.50 2.3 4-1
9 9 May Mischief 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Stable Currency 5.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Praying 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Lady Kathryn 15.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Coaster 10.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Reputation 8.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Wisconsin Gal 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Adogate 10.00 1 2-1
10 10 Ervadean 10.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Titled Lady 10.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Lotsandlotsofcandy 2.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 Twirl Around 8.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Marmalade Skye 3.00 3 6-1
11 11 Miss Enchanted 12.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Aunt Becca 30.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Sing a Little Song 20.00 3.4 7-1
9 9 Punchy Girl 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Tripolina 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Keertana S.) – Keertana S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Marksman Queen (GB) 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Strikingly Spun 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Dreaming of Mo 8.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Boss Lady Bailey 4.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Sugaree (IRE) 4.50 6.6 12-1
2 2 Tarneema 3.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Dazzlin’ Dictator 12.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Holy Foley 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Duke of Duval 4.00 1 2-1
10 10 Thirteen G’s 10.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Fact 3.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Sports Hero 10.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Il Cavallino 10.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Steeze 6.00 4 8-1
9 9 Maxima 10.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Bourbon Flight 20.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Cannon 20.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Money Man 30.00 5.9 11-1
12 12 Wartank 20.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Playa Del Mar 5.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.