Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 30, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ready for Trouble 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Dealing Justice 6.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Always Angels 1.80 2.3 4-1
3 3 Candy Lover 2.50 4.3 8-1
5 5 Sweet Alyssa 15.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Angel Kiss 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Essential Coffee 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 A Rose for Skyler 15.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Red Drapes 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Girl Named Knicki 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Sapphire Beach (IRE) 5.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Love a Little Mo 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 She’s On a Roll 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Trouble’s Roaring 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Litigation 6.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Blast Furnace 3.50 3.6 7-1
5 5 Big Rog 20.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Cortina (IRE) 6.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Leading Role 12.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Gas Alley 8.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Frankie’s Boy 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Billy White Shoes (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Honorary American (IRE) 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Daring Hope 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Troubler 3.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Amelia’s Echo 5.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Innocent Nyght 3.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Cocktail Humor 5.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Hard to Get 12.00 5 9-1
5 5 Party Pauline 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Nola Louise 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Pace Yourself 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Tiz My Hero 3.50 2.9 6-1
1 1 Geno’s Myth 4.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Mellifluous 12.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Guardian 3.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Tuscany’s Eagle 10.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Venik 8.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Spy 12.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Did It Dialed 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Top Gun Girl 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Caldwell Luvs Gold 3.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Cat’s Cave 5.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Pigalle 2.50 2.9 5-1
4 4 Iheartrainacomn 20.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Effortlesslyelgant 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Lady Moscato 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Harbor Springs 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Candy Bar 8.00 1 2-1
11 11 Classy’n Connected 8.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 Nosleeptilbrooklyn 12.00 5.7 11-1
13 13 Bette Davis 10.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Promisemeanempire 12.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Lord I Wonder 12.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Hold My Halo 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Heart Spin 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Lady of Power 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Expatriate 3.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Indy’s Halo 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Always Forever 4.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Storm Miami (IRE) 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Dulce Despertar (ARG) 12.00 1 2-1
2 2 Normandy Queen 3.00 1.9 4-1
9 9 Tripolina 2.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Zadorsky 4.50 4.2 8-1
6 6 Gila 15.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Catmint 15.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Secret Statement 15.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Marmalade Skye 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Bourbon Breeze 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Funnyflame 20.00 1 2-1
3 3 Mega Magic 6.00 1.9 4-1
9 9 Good Bali 15.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Consecrated 12.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Chris’s Revenge 12.00 4.5 9-1
11 11 Publicity 8.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 House United 15.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 Baytown Bruiser 15.00 8.3 16-1
14 14 Decanted 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Game Point 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Gamblin George 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Ngannou 2.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Governing Party 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Dairago (FR) 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.