Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 31, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bourbon Society 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Kavanaugh 10.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Excite 5.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Special Awakening 15.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Chachaching 20.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Start Mo Up 10.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Cromwell 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Chillax 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 M B’s Munning 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Midnight Pranks 12.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Morello 4.50 2.7 5-1
12 12 Lightning Struck 10.00 3 6-1
10 10 Higher Standard 10.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Princip 12.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Pay Zone 12.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Sound Doctrine 15.00 6 11-1
11 11 One Cool Dude 8.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Mowins 30.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Chryso Alogo 12.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Uncashed 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Golden Keen 8.00 1 2-1
13 13 Princess Breanna 5.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Stardialed 4.00 2.3 4-1
12 12 If If If 12.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Quick Sand 4.50 3.8 7-1
10 10 Soundsmischievous 12.00 4.7 9-1
14 14 Magic Seeker 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Simone 8.00 8 15-1
8 8 It Ain’t Like That 20.00 9 17-1
4 4 Diamond N Dress 20.00 10.1 19-1
5 5 Tricker 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 My Raquel 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Backgammon 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Topic Thunder 5.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Mo’ Em Down 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Kapoor 3.50 1 2-1
11 11 Speighter Woman 6.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Strong Destiny 4.50 3.2 6-1
5 5 Scarce 6.00 5 9-1
10 10 Blackjack Mary 12.00 6 11-1
9 9 Merry Madison 4.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Volatile Jinny 20.00 7 13-1
2 2 Tap the Champagne 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Putonahappyface 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Word of Honor 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Crimsonite 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Heavenly Sunset 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Tetiaroa 3.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Clicquot 2.50 5.3 10-1
3 3 Anonima 12.00 6.1 11-1
10 10 Dare to Fly 10.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Winfinity 30.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Especially 20.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Vino Tiempo 30.00 9.4 18-1
1 1 Canal Street 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Overcome Adversity 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Justinqueso 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Atarah 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Aristides S.) – Aristides S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Skelly 1.40 1 2-1
7 7 World Record 3.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Giant Mischief 4.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Happy Is a Choice 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 Durante 15.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Here Mi Song 15.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Champlin 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Audubon S.) – Audubon S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Early Adopter (GB) 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Charlie’s to Blame 5.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Tomasello 5.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 King of Ashes 8.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 World Beater 4.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 Scipio 3.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Mesero 10.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Discreet Dancer 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Shawnee S.) – Shawnee S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Alpine Princess 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Hoosier Philly 5.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Corningstone 10.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Royal Spa 10.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Where’s My Ring 2.50 5.7 11-1
9 9 Free Like a Girl 4.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Wild Bout Hilary 12.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Gin Gin 3.50 6.9 13-1
8 8 In Just My Heels 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Arlington S.) – Arlington S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Gigante 10.00 1 2-1
8 8 Mercante 3.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Silent Heart 10.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Brilliant Berti 3.50 4.9 9-1
6 6 Call Protection 8.00 5 9-1
5 5 Lagynos 4.50 5.1 10-1
1 1 Event Detail 20.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Cameo Performance 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Herchee 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Blame S.) – Blame S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Post Time 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Hall of Fame 8.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Alexander Helios 6.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Mystik Dan 4.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Banishing 4.50 3.7 7-1
3 3 Antiquarian 15.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Tennessee Lamb 15.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Katonah 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Best Actor 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Most Wanted 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Regret S.) – Regret S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Classic Q 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Fionn 4.00 2.2 4-1
10 10 Golden Sunshine 12.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Totally Justified 10.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Aterradora (IRE) 20.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Mechaya 20.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Hereforagoodtime 6.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Fixin to Bee 10.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Jalila 30.00 6.9 13-1
11 11 Deloraine 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Lush Lips (GB) 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.