Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, June 4, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Keeping the Faith 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Skyler 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Livehappy 5.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Phenomenal Dream 4.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Bote 8.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Eerie’s Song 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Beezer 12.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Bright Lights Joe 8.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Watch Me Now 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 No No Joe 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Lend It Tewmey 8.00 1.1 2-1
8 8 Vitement 6.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Play the Trumpet 10.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Spanish Wells 8.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Mr. Melo 6.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Merlotti 15.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Rivalry 4.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Committee of One 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Ride the Broom 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Evermore 15.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Rush to Glory 4.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Moringa 6.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Reading Time 6.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Reign Champagne 8.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Violences Ohr 8.00 5 9-1
6 6 B. Swifty 15.00 5 9-1
1 1 Justtakethecannoli 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Fab Girl 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lil Breezzy 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Insolenta 6.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 Give Her Another 2.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Pour a Little More 5.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Tegwar 30.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Mighty Risky 10.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Romanaya 20.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Well Aware 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Sheila 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Poetica 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Beelieve Her 3.00 1.2 2-1
11 11 Divine Gal 12.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Travaille 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Princess Pom Pom 8.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Street Painter 8.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Trouble Free 15.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Storm Bay 20.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 Too Fast for You 15.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Jackie’s Love 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Mariposa de Pista 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Royal Suite 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Miss Authentic 3.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Cue the Duckboats 2.50 4 8-1
6 6 Win for Speight 5.00 5 9-1
9 9 Oraia 4.50 5.1 10-1
1 1 Kimber Spice 8.00 7 13-1
4 4 Sun Lightning 20.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Toolbelt 20.00 8.2 16-1
5 5 Lobby Rendezvous 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Airborne Elite 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Summonyourcourage 5.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Googol Joke 4.50 5.8 11-1
5 5 Stashu 20.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Good Lord 15.00 7 13-1
1 1 Noble Gentleman 10.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Handsome Herb 3.00 8 15-1
7 7 Remi’s Moon 4.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 That’s Right 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 Dhabab (IRE) 5.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Script 10.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Toddchero 20.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Edge to Edge 15.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Let My People Go 8.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 B D Valeski 12.00 7 13-1
9 9 Test Factor 6.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Surf City 8.00 8.1 15-1
5 5 Bad Beat Brian 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Step Forward 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Hilarious Affair 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Let It Ride 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Funtastic Vow 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tentacion 10.00 1 2-1
10 10 True Passion 2.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Daisy Duke 4.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Strong State 3.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Mezcalifornia 5.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Scythia 8.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Miss Elle 15.00 6 11-1
3 3 Mascara 15.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Mom’s Cheesecake 30.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Kentucky Smokeshow 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.