Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, June 14, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Theprincessfactor 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Churning Berni 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Dawn After Dawn 2.00 2 4-1
6 6 Maddienlizzyshonor 4.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Many Mo Kisses 15.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Buckeye Bombshell 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Moving to Kentucky 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Kevin’s Strike 3.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Encrypt 3.50 4.5 9-1
1 1 Red Royalty 4.00 6 11-1
4 4 Strategist 8.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Ped d’Oro 8.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Tiz Salty 4.50 7.7 14-1
7 7 Mi Compadre 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Divine Wind 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Forbidden Friend 4.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Claire’s Run 2.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Twisted Viper 12.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 B D’s Angel 15.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Summer Adi 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Girl’s Not Grey 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Mila Rose 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Mean Eileen 4.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Zealous Moon 8.00 3 6-1
5 5 Just Ruthless 20.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Admit 3.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Studio Hall 8.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Multiplication 5.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Amarth 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Monomoy Girl Overnight S.) – Monomoy Girl Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Immersive 0.80 1 2-1
6 6 Take Charge Milady 3.50 2.9 5-1
3 3 Anna’s Promise 4.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Princess Aliyah 15.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Minnesota Munny 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Running Away 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Crushed It 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Passing Game 3.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Princetown 2.50 3.1 6-1
7 7 Special Dispatch 4.50 3.4 6-1
2 2 Badge of War 10.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Neon Nights 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Evening News 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Real Men Violin 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 McIlroy 2.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Django 3.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Lou’s Legacy 10.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Footprint 4.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Next Level 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Remi’s Moon 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Running Game 4.00 1 2-1
9 9 Bembridge Ledge 12.00 1.3 2-1
12 12 Theravada 5.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Take Note of This 15.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Mo Expectations 8.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Jeweled City 15.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Sun Lightning 30.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Hello Beauty 3.50 7.3 14-1
13 13 Vino Bella 12.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Sheila’s Lion 15.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 Crawford 6.00 7.7 14-1
4 4 Star Blessing (IRE) 10.00 10.3 20-1
15 15 Hi’iaka 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Yammy Yammy Bella 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Rodina 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Plot 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Frosted Departure 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Hold My Bourbon 8.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Not This Boy 1.60 2.9 6-1
4 4 Dai Vernon 5.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Winters Lion 15.00 6.1 11-1
2 2 Single Dot Yaht 12.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 King Russell 12.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Quality Chic 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Chorleywood S.) – Chorleywood S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Sugoi 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Rebel Red (GB) 3.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Highway Robber 15.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Utah Beach 3.50 3 6-1
7 7 Anglophile 5.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Verstappen 10.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Tapit Shoes 15.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Goldeneye 10.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Lambeth 6.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Lord Bullingdon 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.