Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, June 19, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Vibora 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Delightful Darling 3.50 2 4-1
2 2 Mother of Pearl 4.00 2 4-1
7 7 High Dollar Dolly 6.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Meringue 10.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Rosenvold 20.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Second City Saint 10.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Engagement 10.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 More Carats 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Compressed 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Barstool 2.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Red Speedo 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Divot Digger 4.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Kid Twist 8.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Dr Fenn 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Abdicate 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ethereal Road 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Release McCraken 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Daddy Justify 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Sant’ Antimo 4.00 3 6-1
2 2 W W Crazy 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Southern Sunset 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 American Blaze 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Kissin Riches 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Ibuki 4.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Parking Lot Pours 6.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Hand It Over 8.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Sight Adjust 10.00 6 11-1
4 4 Going Streakin 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Sunset Lines 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Midnight Muse 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Risuko 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Clowning Around 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 A P Sweetheart 4.00 4.5 8-1
9 9 Undercover Agent 5.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Red Drapes 6.00 5 9-1
6 6 Together Again 12.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Beach Ballad 8.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 She’s an Earner 15.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Lewinsky 8.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Ms Daredevil 15.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Dutch Girl 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Uncashed 1.40 1 2-1
7 7 Sitka 3.50 1.2 2-1
6 6 Trust Daddy 3.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Billy the Greek 10.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Regal Rey 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Miacomet 12.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Chryso Alogo 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Angel of Faith 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Songmaker 2.50 3 6-1
2 2 Manage Xpectations 4.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 Purloin 3.50 5.1 10-1
4 4 Royalewithcheese 20.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Spun Up 15.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Adrian 20.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Eliza Vance 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Destino d’Oro 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Expatriate 4.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Cat Eyes (IRE) 6.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Sy B 3.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Eunomia 8.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 New Rome 15.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Promisemeanempire 20.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Justinqueso 10.00 6 11-1
7 7 Mindy’s Union 20.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Birkin Girl 15.00 8.3 16-1
12 12 Princess Buttercup 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 I’m a Cookie Lover 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.