Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 20, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sabrina 1.60 1 2-1
1 1 Commanded 2.50 3.8 7-1
2 2 Dark Fury 3.50 3.9 7-1
3 3 Appealing Addie 6.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Sweet Bebsi 6.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Mombayla 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Longshoreman 1.20 1 2-1
6 6 Thebabeslayer 6.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Happy Prince 8.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Strong 15.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Baytown Anubis 30.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Da Prince Is Right 8.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 Signatory Man (IRE) 4.00 7.5 14-1
11 11 Zeus’s Echo 10.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Dr. My Eyes 20.00 8 15-1
3 3 Speaking in Cursiv 20.00 8.9 17-1
13 13 I C Light 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Fuzzy Stare 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Mr. Vaggio 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Trouble’s Roaring 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Ravens Dream 1.60 3.6 7-1
5 5 Vex 4.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Liam’s Lagoon 6.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 The Chalk 15.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Zappo 10.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Ancient History 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Twirling Troillet 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Eastside Cool 3.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Roussette 8.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Synthesis 2.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Sittin On Go 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Hey Boss 6.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Iceatude 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mobster 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 Mellifluous 20.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Cat Fast 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Sinatra 6.00 3 6-1
9 9 Lean Music Machine 4.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Imperial Ruler 12.00 4 8-1
5 5 Cyberbeast 15.00 5.7 11-1
10 10 Batter Up 15.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Ferris Star 20.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Kohoutek 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Seven Wonders 0.80 1 2-1
3 3 Warlander 6.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Kinetic Control 15.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Curvino 8.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Boss of All Bosses 12.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Papiamento 4.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Esmark 15.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Baytown Bruiser 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Our Dream Rye’d 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Schifty’s Haloid 4.50 1.1 2-1
6 6 Interlock Empire 1.60 1.2 2-1
7 7 Infinite Luck 3.00 2.1 4-1
9 9 King Peanut 20.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Mucho Mojo 15.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 God of Wine 12.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Where’s Randy 10.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Criminal Defense 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 St. Armands Key 4.50 1 2-1
6 6 Green Light 2.50 6.8 13-1
4 4 Johny’s Fireball 3.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Rock’n a Halo 6.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Camaro Z 30.00 9.2 17-1
7 7 Happy Happy Day (ARG) 20.00 12.4 23-1
8 8 Accredit 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Moogie Son 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mount Rundle 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Malibu Springs 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Better Bet 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Echo Lane 4.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Aspenite 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Orizzonte 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Oh Really 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Ak Sar Ben Derby 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Airborne Elite 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 You Ain’t Poppn 10.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 One Mor Story 6.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Graydaria 20.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Ruleroftheuniverse 5.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Metalhead 30.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Vertrauen 15.00 6 11-1
11 11 Private Reserve 30.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Handsome Herb 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Illini 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Mo Hair Sam 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.