Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, June 21, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Vive Veuve 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Mo Fox Givin 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Proctor Street 8.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Waves of Mischief 3.50 1.4 3-1
4 4 Jill Jitterbug 15.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Krispy Rice 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Breezing Along 4.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Sanctify 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Tap Into This 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Gearing Up 3.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Fly Guy Mick 8.00 4 8-1
8 8 Keen Talent 6.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Monterrey 3.50 5.6 11-1
6 6 Pacific 10.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Midnite in Finley 20.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Dixie Devil 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Backgammon 3.50 1 2-1
13 13 My Raquel 8.00 1.2 2-1
11 11 Mo’ Em Down 3.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Greatest 5.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Princess Breanna 10.00 5 9-1
6 6 Authentic Angel 12.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Flaming Mama 8.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 In the Aggregate 10.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Whispering Charm 10.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Gucci Gammy 15.00 8 15-1
1 1 A Rose for Skyler 20.00 8 15-1
14 14 Victor Help Me 15.00 10.2 19-1
12 12 Gaga’s Girl 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Bresha 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Dolce Vino 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Cloudwalker 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Accomplished Girl 4.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Bling 2.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Non Violence 10.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Awesome Treat 5.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Laura’s Charm 20.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Current Climate 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 B G Warrior 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Lightning Struck 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Princip 15.00 1.2 2-1
10 10 Honky Tonk Highway 6.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Top Gun Tommy 4.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Big Effect 2.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 Morello 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Midnight Pranks 8.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 M B’s Munning 8.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Code Omaha 30.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Hocus 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Seven Taylors 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Come to Papa 5.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Cinister Cix 4.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Cannon 3.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Chachaching 4.50 4.5 8-1
8 8 Johnson 10.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Tuscany’s Eagle 3.50 6.7 13-1
4 4 Trojan Pride 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Echo Lane 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Factor Analysis 6.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Miranda Rights 3.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Army Officer 4.50 3.6 7-1
8 8 Aspenite 10.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Mount Rundle 15.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Moogie Son 20.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Ak Sar Ben Derby 5.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Better Bet 15.00 8.3 16-1
5 5 National Eclipse 30.00 10.8 20-1
1 1 Saint in the City 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Anonima 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Lolo Le Plume 3.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Daisy Duke 3.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Flash Wear 5.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Black Ginger 8.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Take Charge Omaha 6.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Madeline’s Promise 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Chicago S.) – Chicago S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Emery 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 My Mane Squeeze 5.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Vahva 3.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Claret Beret 6.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Zeitlos 8.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Gray Lightning 30.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Pigalle 12.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Mink’s Palace 12.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Brightwork 10.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Marmalade Skye 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Harbor Springs 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Invictus 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Faust 8.00 2.2 4-1
11 11 Camp Hale 3.50 2.3 4-1
9 9 U Devil You 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 David of Athens 5.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Amor Patriae 6.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Lil Muggs 30.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Keewaydin 12.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Dapper Moon 10.00 7.4 14-1
12 12 Shepherd 20.00 7.7 14-1
10 10 Hedge 20.00 8.3 16-1
7 7 Stonehenge 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Bolt At Midnight 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Lured Away 5.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Tizmarkus 3.00 2.3 4-1
11 11 Laughnowcrylater 10.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Beyond Best 15.00 5 9-1
10 10 Vamos Carlitos 5.00 5 9-1
5 5 Geno’s Myth 15.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Express Line 15.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Acknowledge 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Coalmoon 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Strategic Force 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.